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Updates From This Week

Countdown Starts for Wire Rod

Domestic mills continue to play a game of musical chairs, taking turns announcing price increases. Because there haven't been any substantial imports booked in the last two months since regional conflicts in the Middle East intensified, the supply gap is widening.

With the ongoing Iran-related tensions, both international steel prices and ocean freight rates have climbed. There simply aren’t any "economic" wire rod or rebar options available right now. Buyers are hesitating to commit to large shipments when import prices are nearly identical to, or only slightly lower than, domestic levels.

For importers, rising prices are particularly painful. Due to the 50% Section 232 tariffs, every dollar the foreign mills raise their price effectively costs the importer $1.50.

The longer these adverse conditions for imports continue, the larger the supply "air bubble" will grow. Eventually, domestic mills will have no choice but to increase prices repeatedly—a trend likely to persist for at least another six months.

Last week, we saw the tip of the iceberg: domestic rebar mills announced $30/short ton increases, with all major producers following suit. Yet, buyers remain cautious. Skepticism is high as rumors of "special deals" circulate. Furthermore, domestic capacity has seen a significant boost from Hybar and Nucor Lexington, and CMC’s West Virginia micro-mill is currently under construction, with production expected to ramp up toward the end of the year.

The arrival of vast volumes of Korean rebar has also created a temporary supply cushion—a welcome relief from the extremely low stocks of the previous quarter. On balance, rebar currently feels like a "softer" product than wire rod, despite decent demand bolstered by aggressive data center construction. While we haven't seen an official wire rod price increase yet, one is undoubtedly in the making.

Meanwhile, the scrap market remains steady, exerting no significant upward or downward pressure on long products. Conversely, flat-rolled prices have been inching up for months; basic grades of Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) are now sitting at $1,080/short ton ($54 cwt). The widening gap between flat-rolled and basic long products (rebar, flat bar, and angles) may soon create opportunities for flat bar and angle producers who can utilize hot-rolled coils as a substrate to compete more aggressively.

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From our content partner, SteelOrbis

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US long steel prices steady as market considers May rebar mill price increases

Thursday, 07 May 2026 22:00:33 (GMT+3) San Diego

US domestic rebar and wire rod prices remained steady, following this week’s surprise announcements from several large US mills announcing higher customer pricing for new rollings of rebar products, market insiders told SteelOrbis.

On May 1, Irving, Texas-based Commercial Metals Company (CMC), announced a $30/ton ($1.50/cwt.) increase in rebar pricing from its Seguin, Tx, Durant, Ok, Knoxville, Tenn, Jacksonville, Fl, Cayce, SC, and Sayreville, NJ mills. An additional $20/ton ($1.00/cwt.) would also be assessed on all coil and spool products from the Durant, OK and Jacksonville, Fl locations, CMC said, adding that all confirmed orders received by close of business May 1 would be price protected if shipped by May 15.

Three days later on May 4, Nucor Bar Mill Group announced an equivalent increase on its rebar products from mills located at Jewett, TX, Sedalia, MO, Jackson, MS, Birmingham, AL, Frostproof, FL, Marion, OH, Kankakee, IL, Lexington, NC, and Auburn, NY locations. And, like CMC, Nucor also planned to increase by $20/ton pricing for its spooled and coiled rebar products, with all confirmed orders price protected if shipped by May 18. Insiders said price increases also were announced by Beaumont, Texas-based Optimus Steel and Tampa, Florida-based Gerdau US, though confirmations were limited as of press time.

Although spot pricing remains flat for now for existing productive capacity already booked, long steel insiders said the mill price increases for new rolling schedules were likely to be accepted over the next week by the marketplace owing to reports of continued tight inventory, the result of solid domestic demand and steel imports recently estimated at levels 38 percent lower than those reported just one year ago, insiders said.

In the domestic rebar market, Midwest rebar on an FOB mill basis sold on average unchanged at $46.00-47.00/cwt., ($920-940/nt or $1,014-1,036/mt). And, while recent rebar pricing has been steady to slightly down as more supplies have been made available, on a yearly basis, prices are up nearly 22 percent from equivalent 2025 levels.

“I think this week’s price increases on rebar will be accepted by the market because availability is limited,” remarked one US Midwest rebar insider.

Another insider was less sure about the likelihood of market acceptance of the mill price increases.

“It’s a bit too early to tell whether the increases will be accepted by the US market in my opinion,” the insider said. “The increases probably will be accepted right away in Texas and Florida, because that’s where supply remains the tightest.”

Another contact appeared surer about the likely effects of price increases on the market.

“It will stick,” the contact said of this week’s rebar price announcements. “From the mill standpoint, it’s pure greed,” he added. “The real question for the market is, how will Hybar react.”

Recently, market insiders told SteelOrbis increase rebar output from the new 700,000-ton per year Hybar rebar mill in Osceola, Arkansas, and Nucor Steel’s 430,000 ton per year rebar mini-mill in Lexington, NC., have resulted in lower rebar offers as available capacity becomes more available.

In a sales team statement to customers, upstart rebar producer Hybar announced that it would not follow the lead of Nucor and CMC seen in the East in recent days to raise prices, “taking its own path as it seeks to build market share,” they said.

“Hybar will continue to work with and support independent fabricators, coaters, distributors and precast companies that find it increasingly challenging to buy rebar from their competitors,” a company official said, pointing to its “bespoke pricing options” to address cost pressures across the value chain.

The letter continued. “The company has targeted some of its competitor’s key accounts, pricing rebar near or below rivals’ delivered rates in every region as output nears 80 percent of the 630,000 ton-a-year Arkansas’ mill capacity. Production topped 40,000 tons in April after reaching nearly 100,000 tons in Q1, according to figures provided by the company on (May 5). “We were EBITA positive in month four and haven’t looked back since,” said CEO David Stickler.

In the local wire rod spot markets, spot pricing is discussed little changed following last week’s $1.00/cwt., ($20/nt or $22/mt) price increases to $50-51/cwt., ($1,000-1,020/nt or $1,102-1,124/mt). Traders continue to report that wire rod supplies remain tighter than those reported for local rebar, though no mention of reduced output from the Peoria, Illinois-based Liberty Steel was mentioned this week.

Steel market insiders continue to cite rising rebar and wire rod prices and strong scrap values as key reasons that the US is likely to see a resurgence of imports into the US during the second and third quarters this year, despite the continued effects of 50 percent steel import tariffs.

“We’re continuing to hear reports of competitively-priced rebar arriving in the US from South Korea priced below $900/short ton ($45.00/cwt), inclusive of the 50 percent steel tariffs,” noted one US Gulf Coast insider. “Rising domestic long steel values in the US are likely to re-open the door to imports, that have been recently closed by 50 percent steel tariffs.”

In the US ferrous scrap market, pricing is expected to settle for May deliveries to customers sideways to April values for cuts and shredded scrap, while price direction for prime busheling scrap on a delivered basis “remains undetermined as buyers weight options,” insiders told SteelOrbis, though most recently has been discussed at $20/gt premiums, they said.

US import long steel prices flat for second week as markets navigate Mideast uncertainty

Friday, 08 May 2026 19:53:06 (GMT+3) San Diego

US import long steel prices were steady for a second week following slight gains posted several weeks earlier, amid continued thin trade as many market participants report being sidelined waiting on more certainty regarding a fluid Mideast situation, insiders told SteelOrbis.

And while media reports indicate negotiations with Iran continue with the country directly and through intermediaries in Pakistan, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with a US naval blockade still in place since April 13. Recent naval encounters and the first US strikes inside Iran this week since the ceasefire began April 8 have done little to ease ongoing market tensions, insiders said.

Despite thin trade, long steel importers told SteelOrbis this week that import pricing could remain supported as a result of elevated global fuel pricing and higher domestic steel prices as a result of sharp import reductions. Higher US long steel pricing, they said, could create additional demand for cheaper imported material, primarily from South Korea.

“We’re hearing reports that rising rebar prices in the US could re-open the door for imports that have remained closed because of 50 percent import tariffs,” said one US Gulf Coast long steel insider. “Reports also are circulating that a lot of rebar from South Korea is being priced below $900 per short ton ($992/mt), or $45.00/cwt., inclusive of the 50 percent import tariffs.”

Long steel insiders also continue to closely watch the price of freight and fuel which remains elevated as a result of the continued closure of the Strait, where it’s estimated that about 20 percent of global oil flows on a daily basis. As the Iran conflict enters its tenth week, the price of US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) dipped to $93-95 per barrel, off from a week-earlier high that exceeded $110/bbl, though still more than 40 percent higher than WTI prices were before the conflict began in late February.

On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis remains steady at $45.50-46.50/cwt., ($910-930/nt or $1,003-1,025/mt), though up from $45.00-46.00/cwt., ($900-920/nt or $992-$1,014/mt) two weeks earlier when markets turned higher as a result of reports of rising fuel surcharges. US East Coast import rebar pricing on a loaded truck basis also remained flat to week ago-levels, following an earlier $0.50/cwt., rise amid freight concerns to $46.00-47.00/cwt., ($920-940/nt or $1,014-1,036/mt).

Weekly import wire rod market pricing also remained flat versus week-ago price levels, even as supply availability remained thin from both an import and domestic market basis. More limited global shipping assets, combined with continued high fuel surcharges, shippers say, have combined to recently make imports of long steel less competitive, insiders said.

In the import wire rod markets, wire rod mesh on a DDP loaded truck basis US Gulf Coast, is discussed steady for a second week at $47.50-48.50/cwt., ($950- 970/nt or $1,047-1,069/mt). And while weekly pricing remained flat, import pricing is still up from the $47.00-48.00/cwt., ($940-960/nt or $1,036-1,058/mt), assessment made three weeks prior.

On the steel import side, most recent import permit data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) finds that total import permits for April were 1,945,000 net tons (nt). This was an 8.1 percent increase from the 1,799,000 permit tons recorded in March and a 10 percent rise from the March final imports total of 1,769,000 nt. Import permit tonnage for finished steel in April was 1,417,000, up 8.5 percent from the final imports total of 1,306,000 in March. For the first four months of 2026 (including April SIMA permits and March final imports), total and finished steel imports were 7,044,000nt and 5,157,000nt, down 28.8 percent and 30 percent, respectively, from the same period in 2025.

AISI said the estimated finished steel import market share in April was 17 percent and is 15 percent year-to-date. March market share rose 6.6 percent versus February, AISI said.

USEC ferrous scrap prices to the docks inch up, but could be a while till they grow again

Tuesday, 12 May 2026 21:01:21 (GMT+3) San Diego

Scrap prices to the US East Coast (USEC) docks remained unchanged as HMS I in New York and Philadelphia was unchanged at $280-290/gt delivered export yard. Yet market stability could be coming to an end as some market fundamentals start to falter. Turkish mills have been cautious about purchases due to the uncertainty still surrounding the US-Israel-Iran war; additionally, Turkish steel prices have been softening.

The price of P&S 5ft to New York and Philadelphia docks remains at $310-320/gt delivered, while shredder feed trended flat this week at $250-260/gt delivered.

Oil and freight prices are also frequently cited as factors in the export market, driving up prices to Turkey in recent weeks. The price of US-origin HMS I/II 80:20 has grown to $411.5/mt CFR Turkey from $404/mt CFR on Apr 23. Yet ocean freight costs have stalled, and this week the bulk ocean freight cost from USEC is reported unchanged at $46-49/mt CFR Turkey. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil has maintained its upward trend, rising to around $102 per barrel from $93 per barrel over the same period.

The war has affected global oil supplies by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz shipping route. A resolution to the war was reflected by global commodity markets last week, yet as of Tuesday afternoon, US and Iranian officials continue to exchange threats of escalating the conflict.

Scrap prices to the Boston docks were unchanged this week as well, with HMS I at $255-265/mt delivered export yard, P&S 5ft at $265-275/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $155-165/gt delivered.

Turkish buying, which has been slow, could decline in the second half of this month due to a couple of national holidays. On May 19, the Atatürk, Youth, and Sports Day will be observed, while half a day is observed on May 26 for the Sacrifice Feast Eve. And after that, there is the Eid al-Adha celebration from May 27-30.

Turkish domestic steel prices have continued to fall this week, with wire rod prices down $5-10/mt due to sluggish demand and Turkish Lira depreciation.

The limited Turkish scrap prices have not softened the price of US-origin HMS I/II 80:20, though. On Tuesday, a deal from a France-based seller was seen at $408/mt CFR Turkey for that grade, which would place the US price equivalent at $413/mt CFR, around $1.5/mt above the current level.

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Softer Rebar Market Pushes for a Price Increase