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Updates From This Week

Long Products Market Decay May Not Come Because of Imports

Global logistics are feeling the burn once again. Escalating military tensions in the Middle East — marked by renewed Houthi attacks on commercial shipping vessels around key maritime chokepoints — have sent Brent crude oil surging past $90–$100/barrel.

Beyond higher energy surcharges, ocean freight and container rates are set to climb as carriers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. While rising ocean freight typically makes foreign steel imports more expensive (and thus less attractive), the ongoing softness in domestic US demand may temper the usual price-hike relief domestic mills hope to see.

The domestic long products market — covering rebar, wire rod, merchant bars, and structural beams — is navigating a messy supply-and-demand balance across different regional pockets:

East Coast & Florida (Oversupplied): Rebar supply is noticeably congested. Aggressive competition among heavyweights like Nucor and CMC, alongside new regional mill capacity like Hybar, has squeezed market margins. Fabricators are comfortably stocked and refuse to buy ahead of immediate needs.

West Coast (Holding Firm): The Pacific market continues to run on a different beat. Mill price increases announced several weeks back appear to be holding reasonably well, aided by tighter localized logistics and controlled import arrivals.

Underneath the inventory pile, real end-use consumption is showing signs of fatigue:

Data Center Delays: The rapid infrastructure expansion surrounding data centers is hitting a temporary speed bump. Pushbacks on project timelines and grid connectivity delays have muted what was expected to be a runaway driver for heavy structural beams and rebar.

Interest Rate Jitters: Persistent inflation worries and fear of "higher-for-longer" federal interest rates continue to make developers hesitant to pull the trigger on commercial real estate and large-scale non-residential buildouts.

Fabricator Stocks: Fabricators, service centers, and wire drawing operations report healthy inventory cushions. With no fear of immediate shortages, spot buying remains strictly hand-to-mouth.

In a clear indicator of industrial wire market headwinds, Liberty Steel placed approximately 300 workers at its Bartonville, Illinois wire mill on temporary furlough. The mill cited sluggish demand for industrial fencing and wire products, alongside import pressure. Because a significant portion of Liberty’s internal wire rod consumption feeds directly into its downstream wire operations, this shutdown means more wire rod capacity is likely to hit the open market, adding downside pressure to rod pricing.

Domestic mills are fast approaching a critical decision point over the next few months. With Midwest scrap pricing trends offering little upward spark and fabricators and wire mills sitting on ample stock, domestic steel makers must decide whether to curb production to preserve margins or "bend the knee" and issue price cuts to defend market share against imported tons and aggressive regional rivals. The threat is greater domestically than from imports. Even if some discounting inevitably happens, it won't bring more tons to the mills' backlogs.

Weekly Poll

What will mills do first if order books remain soft?

Last Week's Poll Result

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From our content partner, SteelOrbis

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USEC docks’ ferrous prices stay unchanged amid geopolitical uncertainty

Tuesday, 21 July 2026 23:11:34 (GMT+3) San Diego

USEC ferrous scrap prices to the docks remained unchanged on Tuesday as exporters weigh the uncertainty in the market caused by the latest developments in the US-Israel-Iran war. The possibility that ocean bulk freight rates from USEC could rise soon has some exporters waiting for more clarity (it already rose to $50/mt CFR Turkey this week). Moreover, some sources in USEC believe the Turkish import market has reached bottom, adding to the uncertainty that USEC exporters are trying to wait out.

Some exporters were seen rejecting bids of $370/mt CFR Turkey for HMS I/II 80:20 on Monday, infusing the export market with some positive sentiment. Moreover, SteelOrbis has learned that a deal from the US to a Marmara-based producer for HMS I/II 80:20 was conducted at $375/mt CFR , and shredded and P&S at $395/mt CFR.

The cost of ocean bulk freight rose this week to $50/mt CFR Turkey from $44-46/mt CFR Turkey last week, while the cost of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $85 per barrel this week from $74 per barrel one month ago. Apart from fuel costs, vessel availability has also set bulk freight costs. Regarding the tension in the Middle East, the US has renewed its threats to Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz. This comes after an agreement was reached for a temporary ceasefire while negotiations continued, providing some weeks of relative stability.

In the meantime, the price of HMS I in New York has trended sideways at $250-260/gt delivered export yard, P&S 5ft has been unchanged at $260-270/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $200-205/gt delivered. At the Philadelphia docks, HMS was flat at $245-250/gt delivered, P&S 5ft at $265-270/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $210-215/gt delivered.

Participants in USEC report that even though an exporter’s shredder came back into operation last week after a fire incident caused it to shut down, there has not been a surge in the price of shredder feed, as other exporters in the region were able to stockpile on the grade during the exporter in question’s extended absence. Contacts believe it will be a few weeks before those shredder feed inventories dwindle and exporters actively seek volumes, at which point there could be an increase in the price of the grade.

Boston dock prices fell late last week as they caught up with declines seen in New York and Philadelphia. HMS I fell by $10-15/gt to $230-240/gt delivered Boston export yard, while P&S 5ft fell by the same measure to $240-250/gt delivered. Shredder feed dropped by $10/gt to $140/gt delivered.

Last week, there was still a bearish sentiment in the Turkish import market, even with more deals expected after the Democracy Day holiday on Jul 15. There were rumors of a deal for HMS I/II 90:10 from Houston at $373/mt CFR Turkey, which would place US-origin HMS I/II 80:20 at $368-370/mt CFR Turkey. Turkish steel sales are still tepid, and mills aim to protect their margins by being cautious with their scrap purchases.

USWC bulk and containerized ferrous prices remain stable, market could have hit bottom

Wednesday, 22 July 2026 22:28:26 (GMT+3) San Diego

Ferrous scrap prices along the US West Coast (USWC) were unchanged this week, both on a bulk towards the docks and containerized FAS port basis, as contacts believe that a possible increase in ocean freight rates thanks to increased uncertainty in the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could tighten exporters' margins. Those exporters now seek to protect their margins even if there have not been reports of higher freight rates from USWC.

A similar situation occurred on the US East Coast (USEC) this week as the market also hit bottom and actually recovered slightly. Amid reports of higher ocean bulk freight rates from USEC, rising to $50/mt CFR Turkey from $44-46/mt CFR the previous week, exporters dug their heels and rejected bids of $370/mt CFR Turkey for HMS I/II 80:20. Sales from USEC actually saw the export price for the grade improve by $6/mt with the latest deals at $375/mt CFR Turkey. The ocean freight rates for USWC usually follow increases in USEC a few days later due to the geographical distance.

In the meantime, this was the first in the past nine weeks where USWC containerized scrap prices did not fall. The price of containerized HMS I/II 80:20 remained at $305/mt FAS Long Beach port, while P&S 5ft trended sideways at $320-325/mt FAS, and shredded at $325-330/mt FAS.

It should be noted that while in USEC the export market has seen a clear improvement, that is still not the case in USWC, there have been no price increases. Some contacts believe there will be stability in the market and price improvements, if any, will not come until Mid-August. They report that supply levels are adequate and that there is no shortage of material for now.

Bulk scrap

It remains to be seen if the decreases in the prices of USWC bulk scrap prices announced a couple of weeks ago will ultimately come into effect as the market turns the corner (or at least stays quiet for now). Two weeks ago, exporters announced that they would be reducing the prices of their inflows by $10-20/gt across the board, yet they have not materialized.

This week, in Southern California, the price of HMS I remained at $240-250/gt delivered Los Angeles export yard, P&S 5ft at $270/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $190-200/gt delivered. In the San Francisco Bay Area, HMS I remained at $250-260/gt delivered, P&S 5ft at $260/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $200/gt delivered.

Houston bulk prices were stable after falling last week. HMS I remained sideways at $320/gt delivered export yard, P&S 5ft at $345/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $320/gt delivered.

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