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Updates From This Week

Import Delays and a Structural Construction Boom Are Keeping the Floor Firm, Even as Long Products Drift Sideways

Optimism is a fickle currency in the steel business, and right now, the long products market is trading in two completely different realities. On the surface, rebar and wire rod are experiencing a summer lull—demand feels a bit softer, and transaction prices are drifting sideways. But don't let the quiet exterior fool you. If you peer just over the horizon, a cocktail of logistical bottlenecks, geopolitical gridlock, and an unstoppable infrastructure engine suggests that supply is tightening far faster than current pricing reflects.

Supply & Logistics: The Freight Neutralizer and the Korean Delays

For those waiting for import relief to drive down domestic costs, the wait continues. Import prices remain stubborn, held up by an ironic equilibrium in ocean freight. While bunker fuel prices have finally taken a modest step back, ocean charter rates simultaneously ticked up. The result? A net-flat freight market that offers zero downward pressure on foreign offers.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risk continues to hold the supply chain hostage. The ceasefire in Iran remains incredibly fragile. Despite temporary waves of optimism, shipping lanes through critical chokepoints are expected to remain restricted for the foreseeable future, forcing structural inefficiencies into global transit times.

The most immediate threat to rebar and rod availability, however, is coming out of East Asia. A significant volume of Korean rebar shipments is facing compounding delays. This isn't just a minor logistical hiccup; it is actively threatening to trigger a domestic rebar shortage much sooner than market participants had anticipated. Importers who assumed they had a comfortable cushion of material arriving for late summer are rapidly finding themselves exposed.

Raw Materials & The Flat Rolled Contrast

A look at the foundational indicators explains why domestic long product mills like Nucor and CMC aren’t flinching on their current price sheets.

Scrap Trends: In the raw materials arena, Midwest and Chicago shredded scrap prices entered the June buying cycle trading entirely sideways, consolidating around the $440–$450/ton mark. This lack of downward movement in scrap provides a solid floor for long products, preventing the minor softness in rebar and wire rod from turning into an actual sell-off.

The Flat Rolled Divergence: If you want a preview of what happens when supply chains snap, look no further than our peers in the sheet market. Flat rolled prices are continuing their relentless weekly march upward, driven by a pronounced and worsening shortage. While long products haven't caught this aggressive upward fever yet, the structural strength of the broader steel complex keeps the pressure firmly on the bulls' side.

Consumption: It is easy to get caught up in the negative headlines. Yes, contractors are screaming about skyrocketing construction costs. Yes, there is mounting municipal pushback and energy grid constraints threatening to slow down data center permitting. But the hard data tells an entirely different story: the construction sector is not just spending money; it is breaking records.

According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data, total construction spending has stabilized at a massive seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.17 trillion. While manufacturing megaprojects have cooled slightly as they transition past peak structural phases, the nonresidential ecosystem has found a massive second wind.

Construction Sector Year-over-Year Spending Growth (YTD):

Data Centers: +28.1%

Office & Data Center Starts: +214%

Water & Sewage Infrastructure: +20%

Power Infrastructure (Grid/Transmission): +14.5%

This means that over 85% of this year’s nonresidential growth is being driven directly or indirectly by the data center and power grid boom. For merchant bars, structural beams, and heavy rebar, this represents a massive, highly concentrated demand base that isn't going away anytime soon.

The Bottom Line

Rebar, wire rod, and merchant bars may feel a little quiet today, but the fuse is lit. With domestic scrap holding firm, flat rolled skyrocketing, Korean import supply lines fracturing, and infrastructure spending sitting at historical highs, the current price plateau looks less like a peak and more like the calm before the next supply squeeze. If you have projects sloped for the second half of the year, waiting for a market correction to buy your steel might turn out to be a very expensive gamble.

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From our content partner, SteelOrbis

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US domestic long steel prices flat despite tight Midwest supply, sentiment better with Iran deal

Thursday, 18 June 2026 20:47:38 (GMT+3) San Diego

Rebar and wire rod markets continued steady for yet another week, even as supply availability remains limited, especially in the US Midwest, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Prices remain steady even as oil prices continued lower following the June 18 signing of the most recent US-Iran peace deal expected to go into effect Friday, June 19.

The 14-paragraph memorandum of understanding, which includes assurances that Iran will never develop a nuclear weapon, provides for an extended 60-day ceasefire, and will re-open the contested Strait of Hormuz which has been closed several times since the conflict began in late February, resulting in a near doubling in global oil prices. At current, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) stands at $73.50-$75.00 per barrel (/bbl), off from nearly $88/bbl reported one week ago. Global oil prices peaked in March this year at $118-$120/bbl amid heightened global geopolitical tensions as a result of the Mideast conflict, where 20 percent of global oil flows.

The interim peace deal, which is hoped will result in a final agreement with Iran over the next 60 days, is important for commodity markets such as steel, because the resulting increase in global oil prices along with heightened freight and insurance costs for steel importers, has led to higher fixed costs for producers of steel and other commodities in the US and abroad. Analyst say that rising commodity and energy pricing has worsened US inflation levels.

And while market sentiment is more positive with the new peace deal in the works, many of the same bullish US steel market fundamentals remain in play, resulting in flat pricing, insiders say.

“Construction spending is up, order backlogs are higher, however, confidence that pricing will decline short term remains limited,” remarked one US Midwest long steel insider. “US mills are happy that they are making money, but at the same time, imports are still not coming in.”

In the domestic rebar market, Midwest rebar on an FOB mill basis remained steady for a fifth week at $47.00-48.00/cwt. ($940-960/nt or $1,036-1,058/mt), up from $46.00-47.00/cwt., ($920-940/nt or $1,014-1,036/mt) earlier. SteelOrbis yearly pricing data shows domestic rebar prices remain about 24 percent higher on an equivalent weekly basis.

Long steel importers report rebar pricing on the US Gulf Coast for September delivery near parity with recent domestic sales at $49.00-$50.00/cwt., however, longer lead times and continued market uncertainty continues to give domestic supply and edge in week-to-week spot trade, they said.

The Midwest insider added that even though US mills are gearing up to produce more supply to cover increased data center and infrastructure-related steel requirements, local supplies remains tight for truckload quantity tonnage, especially in the Midwest.

In the local wire rod markets, spot pricing on the US Gulf Coast remained stable on an FOB mill basis at $50.00-51.00/cwt., ($1,000-1,020/nt or $1,102-1,124/mt).

“Like last year, we’re expecting US mills to allocate supply again this fall,” remarked another US East Coast long steel insider. “Last year, mills blamed it on a lack of imports. Imports now are one the rise, but US mills report that they don’t have any excess capacity available, even with two new (rebar) mills expected to be in full production soon.”

CMC’s 500,000-ton per year CMC Steel West Virginia micro-mill in Berkeley County, was expected to begin producing rebar this month, while Nucor’s 430,000-ton per year micro-mill at Lexington, North Carolina, opened in late May, servicing the corridor between Washington, DC and Atlanta, Ga., where infrastructure and data center-related steel demand is forecast to increase.

US import long steel prices flat, Iran deal signals cautious optimism for shippers

Friday, 19 June 2026 18:33:55 (GMT+3) San Diego

US import long steel prices remained flat yet again for still another week, even as a new interim memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the US was signed this week, calling to a 60-day pause in hostilities and the immediate re-opening of the contested Strait of Hormuz on June 19. A finalized peace agreement setting more specific terms was expected to be hammered out during the 60-day period, media reports indicate.

News of the deal, which calls for an end to Iran’s nuclear program among other things in the 14-point proposal, caused global oil prices to slump to their lowest levels since the hostilities began in late February, easing somewhat, concerns among steel shippers and importers, that elevated freight rates and fuel costs would continue to drop.

At week’s end, however, technical meetings between the US and Iran in Switzerland, scheduled to be lead by US Vice president JD Vance, were canceled late on June 18 after Israel once again struck Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. Both the US and Iran consider the inclusion of a Lebanon truce to be a critical element of the peace plan. Midday June 19, media reports indicated Hezbollah and Israel had agreed to a renewed joint ceasefire, though later reports began to circulate that Iran now expects shippers in the Strait of Hormuz to register with Iran, and that potential tolls to transit the strait might be charged following the 60-day period.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) on June 19 stood at about $76 per barrel, down from the March, WTI spike to $118/bbl, the result of heightened supply concerns as more that 20 percent of global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“If the peace plan calling for the Iran war to be over happens this time, then recent increased steel prices might return to more normal levels and freight rates should drop,” said one US Midwest long steel insider. “At this point, however, it’s too early to tell. The way things have been going lately with this war has lead to a lot of uncertainty, which still continues.”

At the US Gulf Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis remains stable at $46.00-47.00/cwt., ($920-940/nt or $1,014-1,036/mt), up from $45.50-46.50/cwt., ($910-930/nt or $1,003-1,025/mt) several weeks earlier. Spot pricing for US East Coast import rebar is quoted steady at $46.50-$47.50/cwt., ($930-950/nt or $1,025-1,047/mt).

As long steel imports remain constrained by ongoing 50 percent Section 232 steel tariffs, market insiders report wire rod supplies are expected to remain limited with a potential for further price increases likely, they said. Wire rod mesh import DDP offers for September delivery at US Gulf Coast ports are heard at $49.00-$50.00/cwt., ($980-$1000/nt or $1,080-1,102/mt), up from current spot deliveries there that were assessed flat this week at $47.50-.50.00/cwt., ($980-1,000/nt or $1,080-1,102/mt).

Despite continued Iran war-related uncertainty and ongoing supply-side woes, market insiders told SteelOrbis increased long steel imports from South Korea could help stabilize import pricing as markets head into the third quarter. Lower oil and freight prices also will help, they said.

“Supplies remain tight, though not so much as we saw about six months ago, when new antidumping cases by the US Trade Representative (USTR) were settled against Egypt, Algeria, Bulgaria, and more recently against Vietnam, causing imports into the US to tank,” the US Midwest long steel importer added.

US domestic ferrous scrap prices expected to remain stable in July, possible increase in primes

Thursday, 18 June 2026 22:07:03 (GMT+3) San Diego

Domestic ferrous scrap prices settled sideways across the board in June; now, participants are setting their sights on expectations for July. Most believe that it will be a similar outcome as in June, with stability prevailing in the trends for each grade. Yet some fundamentals could cause some grades to increase by a small margin, as with prime grades. And price differentials between markets could make some locations catch up to others on certain grades.

Export market the sour spot

The export market, on both coasts, keeps offsetting any positive sentiment for cut grades. The export market to Turkey has been lagging in recent weeks, and the outlook for the rest of the year is not as positive. Higher energy costs and fluctuating interest rates have placed downward pressure on Turkish rebar, which has diminished their scrap consumption. The price of HMS I/II 80:20 from the US East Coast (USEC) has been on a downward slide since May 25, close to a month now, reaching $397.5/mt CFR Turkey from $414.5/mt CFR. Before that, it had been growing continuously since Feb 23 when it was at $371/mt CFR.

The start of the US-Israel-Iran war at the end of February has increased energy costs worldwide and caused uncertainty in commodities’ markets, prompting many scrap consumers and exporters in N. America to try and protect their margins. Invariably, that has meant a reduction in the costs of their scrap inflows.

Scrap prices to the USEC and US West Coast (USWC) have decreased in the past few weeks, at a different pace depending on the market. In the USWC, bulk scrap prices to the docks fell by $25/gt during the weeks of May 15 and May 26, with HMS I falling to $250-260/gt delivered Los Angeles export yard from $275-285/gt delivered during that period. Containerized scrap prices have followed suit in USWC, the price of HMS I/II 80:20 has fallen by $5/mt for three consecutive weeks; to $330/mt FAS Long Beach port from $340/mt FAS port. And on Wednesday, there are reports that there are already quotes being negotiated for the grade at $325/mt FAS port.

Southeast Asian scrap demand has lowered due to the rainy season in several countries, such as in Taiwan , where the rain has curtailed construction activity and limited Taiwanese rebar demand. In Vietnam, it has been a similar situation, as reported by SteelOrbis last week. In Pakistan , this week, it was reported that the uncertainty surrounding the US-Israel-Iran war is still making some importers cautious, while in Bangladesh , a soft finished steel demand and higher energy costs have also limited the scrap import market.

Yet, at least when it comes to the Asian scrap import market, there is hope that the downward pressure could end very soon. The latest developments in the war point to a possible resolution, at least in the short term. An agreement has been reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with a 60-day negotiating period that will, hopefully, reach a definitive end to the war. Additionally, construction activity is expected to return to normal levels, where the rainy season is a factor.

Positives for primes

Scrap demand in the US remains brisk, with the steel sector’s installed capacity utilization rate linking seven consecutive weeks above 80pc (the last reported rate for last week at 80.3pc), a phenomenon not seen in years. Moreover, finished steel prices, particularly for hot-rolled coil, remain on a positive run for this year, having grown by 22pc since the start of the year to $1,114.75/nt ex-US Midwest mill from $909.8/nt.

Additionally, there are reports that ample volumes of #1 busheling that were available at the start of the year in N. America, stockpiled in recycling yards, have been mostly consumed. And on top of that, there is the possibility that Brazilian pig iron could receive a 25pc import tariff into the US, as it was removed from the US Trade Representative’s list of exclusions ten days ago. Negotiations between US and Brazilian organizations are ongoing regarding this matter, but if the tariffs remain in place, it could affect #1 busheling consumption in the US, possibly increasing the price for July.

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