<p class="">What Will the Midterm Elections Mean for the US Steel Market?</p>

The Battle of Tariffs and Affordability

What Will the Midterm Elections Mean for the US Steel Market? Need Steel? We've Got It. StaalXneXt gives you exclusive access to available steel…

The Battle of Tariffs and Affordability | StaalX

&nbsp; Need Steel? We've Got It. StaalXneXt gives you exclusive access to available steel inventory, future production offers, and discounted surplus and secondary materials from trusted suppliers.&nbsp; Find the best pricing, negotiate directly, and uncover new buying and selling opportunities through a single marketplace built to help steel professionals source smarter, sell faster, and maximize value. View Available Offers &nbsp; Check it out at next.staalx.com or contact us at websupport@staalx.com for more information. Updates From This Week&nbsp; What Will the Midterm Elections Mean for the US Steel Market? The midterm election results delivered an undeniable signal to the White House: voters are exhausted by persistent cost-of-living pressures. While several factors drove the outcome, the core issues were kitchen-table economics: sticky consumer prices, persistent inflation, and voter fatigue with broad-brush tariff policies that add friction to supply chains. Voters penalized Democrats over inflation two years ago; now, they have levied that same frustration against the administration in power. President Trump never concealed his protectionist agenda on the campaign trail, and voters gave him the benefit of the doubt to pursue it. But when protectionism collides with consumer pocketbooks and manufacturing input costs, political patience evaporates quickly. For the industrial heartland, the broader trade strategy has yet to shrink the persistent national trade deficit. And within the metals space, aggressive tariff schedules—culminating in 50% headline rates on key product categories—have struggled to generate the broad domestic manufacturing renaissance that was promised. Instead, downstream fabricators have grappled with surging input costs, retaliatory actions from key trade partners, and mounting supply-chain distortion. Will the administration take the hint and pivot? The White House still has two years to recalibrate tariff actions that face mounting friction abroad and skepticism at home. Section 232 grants the executive branch sweeping discretion—insulating it from many standard judicial hurdles—which enabled the administration to escalate duty rates without congressional approval. Yet domestic consumers bear the brunt. Past trade studies across multiple tariff cycles have repeatedly shown that downstream, steel-consuming sectors shed far more jobs due to elevated input costs than domestic mills gain in direct headcount. If the administration recalibrates, the first logical relief valve would be easing the most punitive 50% rates—potentially through expanded exemptions or lower negotiated duty schedules for key USMCA partners like Canada and Mexico. However, a sudden, wholesale dismantling of the tariff regime remains unlikely—and would create whiplash across the domestic supply chain. Domestic mills have priced current capital allocations and operating capacity around these protections. An immediate reversion to zero-tariff import parity would quickly squeeze operating margins, putting marginal, high-cost electric arc furnaces and legacy blast operations under immediate cash-flow strain. The longer-term structural threat to trade barriers lies in 2028. An opposition party campaigning heavily on affordability will inevitably target high import duties as low-hanging fruit to tame domestic pricing. Many in the metals complex assumed tariffs were permanently locked into the policy landscape. But the election proved once again that James Carville’s old adage still rules Washington: it’s the economy, stupid. When trade policy drives up input costs faster than domestic end-markets can absorb them, the political cost eventually comes due. Weekly Poll Where do you see Section 232 steel tariffs a year from now? • About where they are today • Eased for Canada and Mexico • Broadly reduced Last Week's Poll Result From our content partner, SteelOrbis US long steel prices driven by higher scrap seen up amid reports of tight supply Thursday, 29 October 2026 21:21:47 (GMT+3) San Diego US weekly long steel prices continued their recent ascent this week, fueled by solid domestic demand, rising October scrap prices, recent mill price increases, and reduced competition from imports, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Insiders said that while US construction activity remains unevenly distributed, steel requirements for data centers and other major infrastructure-related projects continue to fuel long steel demand. That, combined with recent increases in the price of domestic scrap -the first seen since mid summer- are expected to remain supportive for domestic long steel pricing through November, even as elevated fuel prices further increase the total cost of deliveries to spot buyers. “Domestic mills are maintaining a firm pricing position, supported by higher scrap costs, limited import competition, and steady demand from infrastructure, data centers, energy, and large industrial projects,” said one US Gulf Coast long steel insider. “Recent mill increases are gaining acceptance, while higher freight costs, tariffs, and reduced offshore availability continue to narrow the traditional price advantage of imported steel.” Following recent $1.50/cwt., ($30 per ton) rebar spot pricing increase announcement from Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor, the SteelOrbis US domestic rebar average price on an FOB mill basis saw a second straight weekly $0.50/cwt., ($10/nt) price increase to finish on average $47.50-48.50/cwt., ($950-970/nt or $1,047-1,069/mt), up from $47.00-48/cwt., ($940-960/nt or $1,036-1,058/mt) one week earlier. And while not fully accepted by the marketplace as of yet, insiders told SteelOrbis market acceptance of the full $1.50/cwt., Nucor price increase would net a combined US domestic rebar price level not seen since September 2022. Some insiders told SteelOrbis some smaller rebar customers already are paying $49-50/cwt., in order to secure more scarce spot supply. “There's really not that much (domestic) rebar available in the market right now,” reported another US East Coast rebar insider to SteelOrbis. “And while recent (domestic) price increases are not having that much impact on the movement long steel imports, ongoing tariffs, duties, the war in Iran, combined with rising freight costs, are limiting the amount of material that can come into the US.” As previously reported by SteelOrbis on Oct. 22, preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce (DOC) shows US imports of rebar totaled 88,878 metric tons during August -the most recent month for which data is available- down 20.9 percent from July, though up a substantial 146.8 percent from August 2025. Most of the imports originated from South Korea, Cambodia, the Dominican Republic and Mexico, DOC said. In the domestic wire rod markets, insiders said supply remains “tight” with domestic wire and rod production said to be “unreliable” from Peoria, Illinois-based Liberty Steel's 700,000-ton per year wire and rod plant. “Liberty is producing, but their output is not stable,” reported one US Midwest long steel insider. “We're hearing that they still are having production problems, so as a result, many buyers don't want to base all their orders on delivery from that mill.” In the local wire rod and wire mesh markets, prices for ex-mill US supply rose for a third straight week by another $0.50/cwt. ($10/nt) to $51.50-52.50/cwt., ($1,030-1,050/nt or $1,135-1,157/mt), up from $51.00-52/cwt., ($1,020-1,040/nt or $1,124-1,146/mt) one week earlier. Insiders said recent posted $30/ton ($1.50/cwt) wire rod price increases from Vidor, Texas-based Optimus Steel LLC., are “working their way through the market,” though it remains unclear how soon and if the full increases will be realized. In the domestic scrap markets, most recent surveys of US-based scrap suppliers indicate November trade could see additional price increases of $20-30/gt, on top of those seen during extended October trade, meaning recently higher US Midwest HMS I/II and shredded material for use in rebar production could trade near $395-415/gt and $450-470/gt, respectively. According to an Oct. 26 Market Sentiment Survey published by the Atlanta, Georgia-based Independent Steel Alliance (ISA), ISA's base case for Q4 2026 calls for a firm-to-positive rebar pricing environment in the $47.50– 51.00/cwt FOB Mill range — an upward revision from the pre-October base case, reflecting confirmed mill price increases now in the market. “The combination of a bullish scrap sentiment indicator, accepted October mill (price) increases, continued mill production discipline, combined with Buy America floor demand, and the strongest construction starts pipeline in several years (Dodge +14.3% YTD) is supportive of this range,” ISA said. USEC scrap-to-dock prices remain largely unchanged this week Tuesday, 03 November 2026 23:58:55 (GMT+3) San Diego Prices for the US East Coast (USEC) scrap collections at the docks remained unchanged this week, with one sole exception. The price of shredder feed to the Philadelphia docks increased by $30/gt and could equal the price of HMS I very soon, according to some contacts. The other grades' prices to the Philadelphia docks remained unchanged, as they did for the New York and Boston docks. A buoyant domestic scrap market in the US continues to support exporters' scrap collection prices; additionally, export prices to Turkey have been recovering briskly. The potential rise in domestic prices for November (trading expected to begin any moment) also has scrap subcollectors in USEC wary of lowering their prices and making it more difficult to secure volumes. A $20-30/gt increase in November is expected for domestic prices, which could bring up the price of HMS I to $370-380/gt delivered consumer or even higher. The gap with inflow prices to the docks is significant, as these prices currently stand at $280/gt delivered export yard. USEC exporters are able to procure the tonnages they need even with the large gap with the domestic market, as they have feeder scrap yards surrounding the facilities (some of the large exporters can have close to a dozen), but if the gap becomes too wide, subcollectors can find it attractive to ship inland, mainly to Pittsburgh. This week New York scrap collections to the docks were unchanged, with HMS I at $280/gt delivered export yard, P&amp;S 5ft at $300/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $240/gt delivered. As mentioned, the price of shredder feed in Philadelphia rose by $30/gt to $270/gt delivered export yard. The rest of the Philadelphia dock prices have been unchanged, with HMS I at $280/gt delivered export yard and P&amp;S 5ft at $310-320/gt delivered. Boston dock prices are also stable, with HMS I at $250-260/gt delivered export yard, P&amp;S 5ft at $260-270/gt delivered, and shredder feed at $180/gt delivered. Shredder feed prices could rise in New York and Boston as well, very soon. Participants mention that non-ferrous prices, particularly for zorba and copper scrap, have been declining and this eats up the profit margins for shredder feed. Hence the need to offset that by raising light iron prices. Subcollectors report that Zorba prices have dropped by ¢10/gt in the past few days and continue to drop. On the export front, a deal was confirmed on Tuesday from USEC for HMS I/II 85:15 at $409.5/mt CFR Turkey. This places projections for HMS I/II 80:20 material at $407/mt CFR, a $5/mt increase from yesterday's prices. US exporters have been able to stand firm on their offer levels because of a recent surge in Turkey's rebar segment , although Turkish mills mentioned they would have more clarity on their recent increase in rebar quotes later this week. This could, possibly, allow for more increases in USEC scrap export prices and possibly push the price of HMS I/II 80:20 closer to the $410/mt CFR Turkey offer level that USEC exporters seek. Containers Prices for containerized scrap for the USEC export market remained unchanged for HMS I/II 80:20 (at $320/mt FAS New York port) and shredded (at $350/mt FAS port). The price of containerized P&amp;S 5ft improved by $15/mt to $345/mt FAS port as exporters believe it needs further separation from HMS I/II 80:20. The containerized market could see some calm in the coming days as the Diwali Festival of Lights celebration in India begins this weekend and ends on Nov 11. Do you have any questions? Check out our FAQ! Check out the most frequently asked questions about the service and products of StaalX. We are always here to chat with you in the chat boxes from the site or on the support telephone number below. 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