Updates From This Week

Will We See More Increases on Long Products?

Market intelligence indicates scrap prices are poised to rise by approximately $10-30/ton in February, driven by winter storms and frigid temperatures that have hampered collections. The key question is: Will this push prices higher for long products like wire rod, rebar, and merchant bars?

Rebar and Structurals

While an increase is possible, merchant bars and rebar already absorbed a price hike in January. Buyers currently lack leverage due to slim import inventories—only Turkish material has appeared in recent statistics. While Korean shipments arriving late in Q1 should normalize stock levels, another near-term price increase remains a possibility.

Wire Rod

The wire rod market appears even more vulnerable to February price hikes. Domestic mills are capacity-constrained, unable to accept new volume, and are keeping existing customers on strict allocations.

Industry Outlook & The Alton Steel Warning

Despite significant trade barriers intended to protect the market, the domestic industry remains challenged by high operating costs and limited access to capital.

A stark example is Alton Steel in Illinois. On January 26, the SBQ (Special Bar Quality) producer abruptly announced it would cease operations, ending nearly 25 years of production. Management cited "insurmountable" structural challenges—specifically, the inability of a privately held mill to access the capital needed to modernize aging infrastructure and compete with larger, publicly traded giants.

The closure, which impacts roughly 250 employees and removes significant bar-in-coil capacity from the market, highlights a critical trend: mid-tier producers are being squeezed out despite protectionist policies. If the current administrative goal is a consolidated market with fewer producers capturing higher margins, the sudden exit of Alton Steel suggests we are rapidly approaching that reality.

Weekly Poll

What does the shutdown of Alton Steel signal for the U.S. long products market?

Last Week's Poll Result

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From our content partner, SteelOrbis

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US domestic weekly long steel prices remain firm this week, February scrap seen higher

Thursday, 29 January 2026 23:01:06 (GMT+3) San Diego

US domestic rebar and wire rod prices were flat again this week, amid reports of steady though limited market demand and domestic scrap prices remain poised to increase for a third straight month, market insiders told SteelOrbis .

Insiders told SteelOrbis that if the market finishes still higher for scrap during February supply negotiations, another round of price increase announcements from US mills for long steel and other finished steel products are likely. At last report, February scrap is seen on average $30/gt higher, with the US Midwest shredded scrap benchmark for rebar production likely to settle at $445-450/gt ($438-443/mt).

In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions noted at $48.00-49.00/cwt, ($960-980/nt or $1,058-1,080/mt), on average $48.50/cwt, ($970/nt or $1,069/mt), unchanged from a week earlier.

“Scrap [inflows] are limited because of weather conditions. That, I think, is going to set prices a bit up,” said a SteelOrbis long steel insider. Last week’s winter storm, he said, caused the US serious delays in deliveries, transportation, and domestic steel mill production. Most of the country is still dealing with icy roads, frozen ground, and unusable equipment this week.

“Due to this winter storm, business tends to stop for rebar shipments,” said another long steel insider.

Recent domestic mill price increases, contacts say, might re-emerge in February, especially if scrap pricing continues to increase mills' steel production costs.

On January 6, 2026, the Nucor Bar Group announced a price increase on most merchant and structural products by $2.50/cwt ($50/nt or $55/mt). There have been no new recent Nucor announcements as of this week.

On the domestic long steel demand side, weekly discussions have continued regarding the US construction industry and its current key demand drivers, infrastructure and data center construction. Commercial and residential construction was described as “mixed” by another long steel insider. He added that his contacts in the the construction industry remain hopeful that new project activity will increase sharply as the extreme cold weather subsides later in the first quarter.

In the domestic wire rod market, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions reported this week at $48.00-49.00/cwt ($960-980/nt or $1,058-1,080/mt), or an average of $48.50/cwt ($970/nt or $1,069/mt), unchanged from a week ago.

Reports on a steady but slow wire rod market continued this week, but no updates on production levels were made available from officials at Peoria, Illinois-based Liberty Steel’s wire and rod plant. Insiders told SteelOrbis recently that the unit was not producing at its full 700,000 ton/year capacity, though attempts to verify unit reports with the plant remained unsuccessful at press time.

US import long steel prices slip on scant global demand, US scrap to support

Thursday, 29 January 2026 23:14:43 (GMT+3) San Diego

Import rebar and wire rod prices were slightly lower this week amid limited global demand for long steel products, even as US scrap markets were expected to trade higher near term, which insiders say could encourage more import activity soon as domestic pricing was likely to remain supported.

And, as US domestic long steel prices recently have traded steady to higher as a result of reduced tariff-inspired imports, insiders told SteelOrbis importers could make further inroads into US markets in early 2026 as the price advantage between domestic long steel supply and imports shrinks.

Since the week of June 4, when the US imposed doubled 50 percent steel tariffs on Canada and Mexico, US domestic rebar and wire rod prices have increased 27.6 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively, SteelOrbis data shows. Insiders said rising domestic prices above $47.00-48/cwt., allows import pricing alternatives to be more competitive with domestic supply, given ongoing tariffs and expanded company and country-specific anti-dumping duty assessments.

At last report, US domestic rebar and wire rod supply is assessed stable at $48.00-49/cwt., though insiders told SteelOrbis higher spot prices are likely, with US mills expected to announce another round of customer price increases, especially if rising US scrap values continue to increase mills’ finished steel production costs for a third straight month.

On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis is discussed slightly lower in scant trade at $45.00-46/cwt., ($900-920/nt or $992-1,014/mt), off from $45.00-47/cwt., ($900-940/nt, or $992-1,036/mt), reported seven days prior. US East Coast import rebar is assessed at parity with Gulf Coast supply once again at $45.00-46/cwt., ($900-920/nt or $992-1,014/mt), also down.

During January scrap negotiations, most US domestic scrap grades rose an additional $20-30 a gross ton (gt). Ahead of monthly scrap supply negotiations that begin next week, February scrap is seen an additional $30/gt higher, with US benchmark Midwest shredded scrap used in rebar production valued at $445-450/gt ($438-443/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis. In December and January trade alone, US Midwest shredded scrap prices increased a total of $50/gt to $415-420/gt ($422-427/mt), a nearly 8 percent gain. During the same time period, US domestic rebar pricing rose about 4.3 percent. If expected February scrap prices prove true, pricing for Midwest shredded scrap will have risen nearly 16 percent since the release of December settles.

In the import wire rod mesh markets, import supply on a DDP loaded truck basis US Gulf is discussed at $43.50-44.50/cwt., ($870-890/nt of $959-981/mt), off $10/nt from, $44.00-45/cwt., reported one week prior.

Import insiders told SteelOrbis they expect increased shipments of wire rod to arrive from South Korea exporters during June and July, 2026. Stable domestic long steel pricing, they said, is likely to continue nearer term, as markets “digest” recent mill price increases reported by mills during January trade.

“The South Koreans right now have the best prices out there for wire rod,” reported one US Midwest-based long steel importer. “Long steel pricing in Asia has been depressed for a while, China exports have been lower, and as a result import pricing is adjusting down a little bit. There is a growing spread between domestic and import pricing that could make imports more attractive fairly soon.”

February US ferrous scrap seen $20-40/gt up as snow, ice and cold disrupt operations

Thursday, 29 January 2026 22:24:00 (GMT+3) San Diego

For a third consecutive week, US domestic scrap prices for February delivery were forecast to potentially trade higher, market insiders told SteelOrbis in an exclusive weekly survey of market participants. With February largely staged to be the third straight month of domestic scrap price increases, next month’s buy-cycle trade action could be driven higher as a result of developing logistical issues for inbound and outbound scrap, following continued record cold weather, that was preceded by heavy snowfall and ice across more than 30 US states this past weekend.

Suppliers told SteelOrbis this week available supply “on the ground” in much of the Midwest, Northeast and parts of the Southeast remains snow covered, making shred processing operations more costly and time consuming. Some buyers have taken to buying scrap specifically in areas not affected by the storm, though many told SteelOrbis transportation of scrap to customers remains tricky.

“Domestically, we’re hearing [February] prices up $30/gt or more,” remarked one Nevada-based scrap supplier. “Right now, domestic scrap is stalled, even into the Southeast. As a result, buyers are having to reach as far south as Texas and Florida for shred supply.”

According to data from the Washington, DC-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), as of Jan. 28, about 51 percent of the US is covered by snow, up from 25.5 percent coverage one month prior. Some areas of the US that haven’t recently seen much snow like New Mexico, recorded as much as 31 inches of snow in the Sacramento Mountains.

“Not only are we seeing sharply higher scrap prices, but we’re also feeling it as well,” said another Ohio-based scrap broker. “There’s no question that scrap inflows have diminished to a crawl,” he said. “This will definitely affect the February market. At this point [Jan.28], we’re expecting to see a $20-30/gt increase.”

Ongoing discussions with US mills -many of which predicted an unchanged or “sideways” outcome versus January settles over the past several weeks- now finds higher pricing more likely.

“I’m thinking up $20/gt for February scrap,” remarked one US Midwest mill scrap buyer to SteelOrbis.

And, while it appears that near-term US scrap production will be more limited following the recent storm, scrap insiders said transportation issues are now emerging to the forefront as reports continue of interrupted deliveries as a result of scattered road closures, closed supply yards and downed delivery vehicles.

One Ohio-based scrap supplier reported his operation remains shuttered as a result of weather-related issues.

“We got 1-2 feet of snow here depending on where you are located in the region,” the supplier told SteelOrbis. “We are shut down,” he added. “It’s impossible to operate in these conditions while avoiding problems. With temperatures of 15 degrees [Fahrenheit] and wind chills of negative 20 degrees, hydraulics fail, diesel fuel gums up clogging fuel lines on our trucks, and if you have any breakdowns, you can’t work outside to fix things, so everything requires working in a shop in order to get done.”

As the storm, which was characterized as a “generational event,” in recent media reports moved across the US, an estimated 200 million US citizens were under weather-related alerts. A second US Northeast snow storm is possible this weekend, though the effects of this predicted “Noreaster” could be minimal, especially if more likely models calling for a more easterly track prove true, forecasters said. If the new storm moves further west, heavy snow is once again likely, otherwise, the storm is expected to bring mostly light snow and heavy winds, forecaster said.

“In my yard, you would never know that there is scrap sitting there,” the Midwest supplier reported when asked about operations going forward. “And, while we don’t have big inventories to begin with, our scrap is now covered by a lot of snow. The only way to uncover it is to move your scrap with material handlers and shake the snow off prior to processing and that cost time and money.”

“Although I remain less than 100 percent sure at the moment, I'm still hearing up $20-40/gt still,” said one Detroit-based scrap supplier.

Based on a conservative $30/gt increase in February scrap prices, US Midwest busheling scrap could settle at $445-455/gt ($452-462/mt), while February shredded material could settle near $445-450/gt ($452-457/mt). P&S and HMS scrap could settle near $431-441/gt ($438-448/mt), and $395-415/gt ($401-422/mt), respectively.

On the US East Coast, a $30/gt higher settlement could yield February busheling scrap prices near $400-420/gt ($406-427/mt), while February shredded scrap could finish near $395-405/gt ($401-411/mt). In P&S and HMS grades, a $30/gt higher settlement would yield a P&S scrap settle near $360-370/gt ($366-376/mt), while February HMS 80:20 scrap might settle in the range of $375-390/gt ($381-396/mt), on a delivered to export yard basis, market insiders said.

In the US scrap export markets, US East Coast export scrap contacts told SteelOrbis resistance to rising prices from Turkish mills continues, with some reported to be taking a step back from production by announcing the start of maintenance operations instead. Finished steel demand has not improved, they told SteelOrbis, and continues to exert pressure on import scrap prices.

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Scrap Prices Bound to Go up Another Notch