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Long products Strength Continues
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We will have a short article for the short working week. Long markets are stable and quiet but the one major development is Nucor's price increase announcement of yesterday. They have announced a $40 /short ton increase without citing any reason. Strong demand outstripping the US supply, as well as severely handicapped imports are enabling domestic price increases without scrap price increases.
These conditions should continue until the end of 2025 and well into Q1 of 2026.
Lately flat rolled prices have also been going up, but in small increments. It's possible we might see the flat rolled joining the party and make December a remarkably strong month.
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| | | What’s driving long-product strength more right now? |
| | | | | Gratitude, Good Steel, and Great Partnerships! |
| At StaalX, we are especially thankful for our customers and partners who make our work meaningful. Your trust and collaboration drive us every day. We hope you enjoy a well-deserved break and a joyful Thanksgiving holiday. |
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From the rise of specialized, high-value projects to the weakness across traditional construction categories, Episode 10 unpacks why long products like rebar remain unusually strong, how new domestic capacity could influence pricing, and what this divergence means for contractors, distributors, and steel buyers heading into 2026.
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Come see us at Booth #N3368 for a live demo of the digital steel marketplace that’s reshaping how the industry buys concrete reinforcements — including rebar, wire rod, welded mesh, and merchant bars.
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| | | | From our content partner, SteelOrbis |
| | US domestic rebar and wire rod prices flat following past tight supply rise
Friday, 21 November 2025 20:34:37 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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US domestic rebar pricing remains flat following last week’s increase, while wire rod pricing was steady for the fourteenth straight week, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Insiders said long steel pricing remains flat even as as the outlook for December scrap pricing remains steady to potentially higher on expectations for increased mill purchases next month, they said.
And, while news reports from Washington, DC-based Construction Dive indicate non-residential construction spending fell for a third time in four months, market insiders continue to report that data center builds primarily are behind the continued demand in long steel markets.
“If the data center construction bubble that has formed, pops, the [domestic] rebar market will cool off,” remarked a Midwest-based long steel insider to SteelOrbis.
In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions noted at $46.00-47.00/cwt, ($920-940/nt or $1,014-1,036/mt), on average $46.50/cwt, ($930/nt or $1,025/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
SteelOrbis market insiders described domestic rebar as going through an “upward pricing cycle”, with continuing anticipation of price increases possible through the end of year and in the first quarter of 2026. Right now, they say, pricing is driven by the availability of the rebar itself.
“There needs to be a $2.00-3.00/cwt., difference between the price of domestic supply and the price of imports to get anything to come into the US, though, right now it’s less about price, and more about supply availability,” the Midwest insider added.
In the domestic wire rod market, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions reported this week at $46.50-47.50/cwt ($930-950/nt or $1,025-1,047/mt), or an average of $47.00/cwt ($940/nt or $1,036/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
Insiders told SteelOrbis Nucor confirmed its wire rod prices in a customer letter several weeks earlier, keeping wire rod pricing flat at previous price levels.
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| US import long steel stable to up on scant supply and steady to higher scrap
Tuesday, 25 November 2025 21:23:18 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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US import long steel pricing was mostly stable to up slightly in slow pre-Thanksgiving holiday trade, following previous supply-related weekly gains across domestic long steel markets, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Reports of scant inventory, a continued lack of imports, and a growing outlook for steady to potentially higher December scrap pricing continues to be supportive for finished steel prices, they said.
“December scrap will mostly likely go up,” remarked one US East Coast rebar importer. “It always does so in the winter.” He added, “Right now, rebar supply remains tight and mills are requesting that orders get cut back or pushed back into future rollings.”
Recently, US domestic mills, facing low imports and steady long steel demand growth mostly from the data center build market segment, have begun to ration available material through a supply management process known as “allocation.” And, while most US mills are operating at around 78 percent of capacity, available supply in the form of imports remains sharply curtailed, insiders said, even as new domestic production in the US South and Southeast continues to slowly increase.
While domestic long steel pricing was reported flat this week, insiders said further price increases from domestic mills could make imports once again a viable supply option. Most mills are likely to remain fiercely competitive on price to maintain limited market share.
On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar pricing on a loaded truck basis was reported up slightly from earlier levels with weekly average prices seen in a wider $44.00-47.00/cwt., ($880-940/nt or $970-1,036/mt) range, or on average $45.50/cwt., up from $44.00-46.00/cwt., ($880-920/nt or $970-1,014/mt) one week earlier. Reports continue to circulate about shrinking supply availability at Gulf Coast supply warehouses forcing sellers to seek higher pricing for still available inventory.
On the US East Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis was steady versus week-ago levels at $44.00-46.00/cwt., ($880-920/nt or $970-1,014/mt). And, while reports of US East Coast import rebar sales remain heard near $47.00/cwt., the higher spot levels likely represent smaller than truckload sized offers.
Last week, a US Gulf Coast importer told SteelOrbis domestic rebar pricing in the $47-48/cwt., range ($940-960/nt or $1,036-1,058/mt), will encourage an influx of new import shipments extending into Q1, 2026. Current deliveries for Q4, he said, will likely amount to a mere 50 thousand tons.
This week, US domestic delivered rebar on an FOB Midwest mill basis traded flat at $46.00-47/cwt., just under the stated import insider price threshold. Some expect pricing to continue flat near term, pending movement in December ferrous scrap, following recent limited mill long and flat steel price increases.
On the import wire rod front, US Gulf Coast import pricing for wire rod mesh on a DDP loaded truck basis remains steady at $42.00-43.00/cwt., ($840-860/nt or $926-948/mt).
“I don’t think its going to be a very quiet December,” remarked one Midwest-based long steel insider. “Normally, the markets basically go to sleep around the holidays, but this year, we expect to see more buyers beating the bushes for supply, especially in the first quarter as more domestic supply begins to really dry up.”
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| December US scrap still seen mostly sideways, though higher pricing a growing possibility
Thursday, 20 November 2025 21:29:54 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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The December outlook for US scrap pricing remains sideways in weekly market discussions with most scrap buyers this week, though increasing chatter among suppliers indicates a $10-20/gt premium is increasingly more likely, especially if mills emerge as larger scrap buyers next month when most annual maintenance operations will have been completed, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Jan-Feb scrap is seen by some up $20-40/gt as demand expectations for 2026 supply requirements begins to emerge.
“Scrap is likely to rise in the December through February period,” remarked one US Gulf Coast long steel market insider speaking on his scrap outlook. “This should provide firm cost support for rebar pricing. We expect [long steel] to hold firm into winter and likely trend higher with scrap. Tight supply availability is the number one driver,” he added, “and lead times [for rebar] are stretching out toward January-February.”
Another Upper Midwest scrap insider remained less convinced pricing would move higher for December. “Mills saying sideways, while suppliers are calling it $10-20/gt higher sounds about right,” he commented, “The problem is, that they will [mess around] for a week and a half and [November] will be over, so, I just don’t know at this point.”
One US East Coast scrap insider was more convinced a higher December scrap outlook remains possible. “Scrap is up even today,” he said. “We’re expecting higher numbers for scrap, though, we will have to see what this week brings. If [rebar] stays strong, we are expecting a $10-20/gt increase next month.”
Following months of stable rebar pricing, Nucor and close competitor Commercial Metals Company (CMC) announced a much anticipated $30/nt ($33/mt) rebar price increase effective Nov. 7. Spot pricing has continued to inch up since the mill moved to raise posted pricing. Nucor also has been increasing its posted Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for hot-rolled coils, most recently up $15/nt to $910/nt ($1,003/mt) or $45.50/cwt. In just two weeks, Nucor’s CSP has risen $45/nt, or $50/mt., for a gain of 2.25 percent.
During September, October and November, most US mills perform scheduled annual maintenance, reducing their need for scrap while mills remain shuttered. During September, scrap prices settled sideways to August values, while October saw a $10-20/gt dip in pricing across all scrap grades and regions. Recent November settles showed scrap mostly sideways once again, though Midwest busheling moved $18/gt lower, as workable trading ranges narrowed, amid reports of plentiful supply in local markets, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis. Other grades finished solid sideways across all grades and regions.
While higher scrap prices are seeming a better possibility each week leading up to the start of December buy-cycle negotiations, based on a developing consensus for a sideways to up December settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap could finish next month at or above $385-395/gt ($391-401/mt) on a delivered to mill basis. Midwest shredded scrap, which is still called flat to potentially $10-20/gt higher, is likely to finish for December at or above its November close at $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt), though a solid market call remains inconclusive as buyers and sellers still remain far divided. Ohio Valley HMS grades which finished sideways for November, are likely to settle flat to up from $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled flat this month, could settle sideways to up from its November close at $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
December prime busheling grade material is expected to settle flat to potentially higher near $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following its November sideways settlement, while shredded grades are seen sideways to potentially higher than the November settles near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt). P&S and HMS grades could finish flat to up from November settles near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt), respectively, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis.
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