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Today, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in a pivotal case challenging the scope of the President's authority to impose broad tariffs, independent of specific trade statutes. The Court's questioning of the administration's legal basis suggested a degree of skepticism regarding the President's power to unilaterally enforce tariffs, particularly by relying on an emergency declaration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Historically, the power to tax and set tariffs rests with the U.S. Congress. This case scrutinizes the administration's use of IEEPA to impose the "Reciprocal Tariffs," which were announced on April 2, 2025, a date the administration called "Liberation Day." These reciprocal tariffs range from a baseline of 10% to as high as 50% on certain trading partners.
Key Takeaways for the Steel Industry
The tariffs under review are the broad reciprocal duties, not the existing Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs. This distinction is crucial for the steel market: - Minimal Direct Impact on Steel Imports: Should the Supreme Court ultimately strike down the reciprocal tariffs, the direct impact on the majority of steel imports—which are already covered by the separate Section 232 duties—would be minimal.
- Limited Steel Products Affected: The reciprocal tariffs were only applicable to steel products when they had been specifically excluded from Section 232 due to reasons like domestic unavailability. Since the Section 232 exclusion application process is now terminated (though granted exclusions remain valid for a year from approval), the pool of steel products affected by the reciprocal tariffs is relatively small.
- Future Trade Policy Shift: A ruling against the administration may prompt President Trump to rely even more heavily on existing sectoral trade tools like Section 232 and Section 301, which have a clearer statutory basis, as his primary instruments for trade negotiations moving forward.
Steel Market Outlook Remains Strong
Despite the legal drama unfolding in Washington, the domestic steel market appears stable and optimistic. - Pricing and Competition: Domestic and import pricing for key products like rebars and wire rods shows no noticeable change. Steel mills continue to enjoy a period of decent demand and reduced import competition, largely thanks to the continuing Section 232 tariffs.
- Construction and Investment: Contractors and developers are increasingly positive about the future. The construction sector, in particular, is receiving a substantial boost from the accelerated AI-driven investment across the economy.
- 2026 Forecast: The industry is collectively planning for a robust year in 2026, underscoring confidence in sustained demand and market strength.
The Supreme Court's final decision will be a landmark moment for the balance of power on U.S. trade policy, though its immediate effects on the current steel market are projected to be limited. |
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| | | Will the Supreme Court overrule the Trump Administration’s tariff powers? |
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🎙️ Missed Episode 7? Catch up now — we explore how interest rate cuts and steady steel demand are reshaping the construction outlook as 2025 approaches. From data center growth to public infrastructure resilience, Episode 7 examines what recent Fed moves and steel mill pricing trends reveal about the balance between optimism and caution in the market.
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🏗️ StaalX Exhibits at World of Concrete 2026! |
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Visit us at Booth #N3368 and discover how our digital steel marketplace is transforming the way contractors and fabricators source concrete reinforcements — from rebar and wire rod to welded mesh and merchant bars — all online, in minutes.
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| | | | From our content partner, SteelOrbis |
| | US import long steel pricing stable to up on limited supply amid steady but slow domestic demand
Thursday, 30 October 2025 23:01:31 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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US import long steel pricing was steady to higher this week on continued supply limitations as imports dwindle, even as domestic demand remains steady though unremarkable, long steel insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Insiders said supplies of pre-tariff rebar and to a lesser extent, wire rod, at US Gulf Coast-based warehouses are continuing to drop, and that suppliers are starting to seek higher pricing for what’s still available.
On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar pricing on a delivered basis moved slightly higher following two weeks of steady pricing to on average $44.00-46.00/cwt.,($880-920/nt or $970-1,014/mt), up from $44.00-45.50/cwt., ($880-910/nt or $970-1,003/mt) one week earlier amid more reports of shrinking supply availability at Gulf Coast warehouses.
“There’s quite a bit of an import rebar supply shortage in Houston,” reported one rebar import insider. “Before June, import supply was priced at $37.00/cwt., now, it’s pricing at around $45.00/cwt., because of supply scarcity”
“Import arrivals are down 3 percent year to date through August,” remarked another US Gulf Coast rebar importer to SteelOrbis. “And, Q4 arrivals are expected to be minimal.”
On the US East Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis remains unchanged for a third week at $44.00-46.00/cwt., ($880-920/nt or $970-1,014/mt).
And while some long steel insiders told SteelOrbis they expect limited import shipments to arrive in the US from Korea and Turkey in the near term, other importers said business remains “not great” despite continued reports of “tightness” from domestic mills. Continued market and economic uncertainty, they said, might be discouraging restocking and holding of long steel inventory.
“I can tell you that I quote rebar pricing every day, both fabricated and straight bar, and the margins are not attractive,” said one US East Coast rebar import insider. “The level of speculative buying remains minimal,” he added. “People are asking themselves why they should speculate on rebar, hold it through the winter, and then hope pricing stays up. It’s easier to just pass the supply on, and then hedge it.”
This week, metals futures prices have been in decline. On the London Metals Exchange, media reports indicate rebar futures prices fell sharply, pressuring nickel, mostly used to make stainless steel, and zinc, mainly used for galvanizing steel, to eight-month and three-week lows, respectively. Media reports indicate China could allow its northern provinces to set their own production curbs over winter, meaning a potential continued overabundance of cheap Chinese steel.
In the wire rod segment, US Gulf Coast import pricing for wire rod mesh on a DDP loaded truck basis remains steady at $42.00-43.00/cwt., ($840-860/nt or $926-948/mt).
As previously reported by SteelOrbis, US long steel mills continue to allocate supply because of ongoing sharp reductions in imports, the result of ongoing 50 percent steel tariffs, even as 4th quarter mill maintenance operations continue. Spot prices are likely to remain little changed near term, they say, as US infrastructure spending continues to lag, even though long steel demand from data center construction activities, and spending for AI operations, continues to lend limited price support for long steel.
On the raw materials front, November shredded scrap pricing is projected to settle sideways for a third week, SteelOrbis surveys show. During October scrap supply negotiations, US Midwest shredded scrap -a key US grade referenced in domestic rebar production- settled $10/gt less than September on average $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt). Insiders say recent US mill additions to domestic rebar production have yet to have a significant impact on reducing spot price levels, even though tariffs continue to slash imports.
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| US domestic rebar and wire rod prices remain flat as import prices inch higher, increases seen likely soon
Thursday, 30 October 2025 20:50:02 (GMT+3) San Diego |
| US domestic rebar and wire rod prices were flat for the thirteenth week amid limited domestic demand, even as import long steel prices have begun to inch up, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Insiders said existing import inventories at US Gulf Coast warehouses continues to shrink as available replacement supply from overseas dwindles, causing US suppliers to seek higher pricing for what’s still available. Higher import pricing could allow US mills to announce rebar price increases soon, they added.
“Before June, import spot pricing that was quoted on the US Gulf Coast at $37.00/cwt., is now quoted at $45.00/cwt.,” remarked one import rebar insider, about the current pricing situation. “While we expect some replacement supply to hit the US near term from Korea and Turkey, supply from Asia remains largely unavailable.”
Insiders told SteelOrbis the growing paucity of imports could begin to cause domestic long steel prices to rise, however small, even though several mills that announced previous $40/cwt., price increases last week for their merchant bar quality steel, later rescinded those increases.
“US mills continue to sell out rolling schedules, and several smaller regional players have attempted modest (price) hikes ($2.00/cwt., or $40.00/nt) to offset strong order books,” one rebar insider told SteelOrbis. “Domestic rebar prices have now remained flat for three months,” he said. “CMC’s brief MBQ price hike was withdrawn, yet Nucor and SDI see a justification for a rebar price increase soon as buyers actively restock ahead of winter.”
Following earlier predictions of a long-awaited long steel price increase from US domestic mills, on Friday, Oct. 17, Irving, Tx.-based CMC Steel, announced a $40/ton ($44/mt) increase in its customer prices for MBQ steel. Following CMC’s announcement, on Monday, Oct. 20, Fort Wayne, Indiana-based Steel Dynamics, Inc., (SDI), Tampa,Fla.-based, Gerdau North America, and Houston, Tx.-based Deacero also announced their own equivalent MBQ price increases. As of press time this week, only Deacero had plans to maintain its increase. Insiders said the other mills rescinded their planned increases because Charlotte, NC.-based Nucor did not announce an equivalent increase of its own “Nucor does not like to follow the guidance of the other mills, and Deacero has decided to keep the price increase in place because of the ongoing 50 percent steel tariffs,” commented one long steel insider to SteelOrbis. In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions noted at $44.50-45.50/cwt, ($890-910/nt or $981-1,003/mt), on average $45.00/cwt, ($900/nt or $992/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
In the domestic wire rod market, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions reported steady this week at $46.50-47.50/cwt ($930-950/nt or $1,025-1,047/mt), or an average of $47.00/cwt ($940/nt or $1,036/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
While domestic pricing still remains flat, one SteelOrbis insider hinted that 2026 could be a better year for US steel markets. “I am now looking forward to 2026, since it may not be as bad of a year as we anticipated (earlier) for the (US) steel market,” he said.
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| November US scrap outlook maintains sideways outlook following lower October settles
Friday, 31 October 2025 14:29:04 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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The US scrap pricing outlook for November remains steady for a third week at sideways or stable to lower October scrap settlements, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week. The continued unchanged outlook for next month reflects a more bullish scenario for scrap pricing versus recent lower October settles, as annual maintenance operations at domestic steel mills are expected to begin to conclude, potentially requiring more scrap purchases from mills, they said.
And, even as finished steel demand remains unremarkable in the US, and as global economies continue to struggle with tariffs, limited growth, and increased levels of local protectionism, insiders said scrap flows into US Midwest and East Coast supply yards remain steady, with inventory levels once again reported as adequate.
“Rebar to scrap spreads remain near two-year highs,” one US Gulf Coast rebar importer told SteelOrbis. “[The spreads] underscore healthy mill profitability and cost stability.” He continued. “Export flows to Turkey have strengthened slightly, but US domestic scrap remains comfortably supplied, particularly in the Midwest.”
During the recent October scrap supply negotiations, insiders told SteelOrbis that a combination of maintenance activities, low export requirements for US scrap and adequate supply caused scrap prices to dip $10-20/gt ($9.84-19.69/mt) across the board versus September settles.
Based on a current sideways to October settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap -which settled on average $20/gt less during October negotiations- could settle for November in the US Ohio Valley at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt) on a delivered basis, while while shredded scrap, which saw a $10/gt decline, could settle near $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt) delivered. Ohio Valley HMS grades which moved $10/gt lower in October, could trade flat at $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled on average $10/gt lower, could trade for November near $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt).
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material could trade flat at $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following October’s $20/gt delivered decline, while shredded grades are currently seen steady near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt) following the recent $10/gt October decline. P&S and HMS grades might finish flat to the $10-15/gt lower October delivered price settles reported near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt), respectively, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“It’s the same thing we’re seeing over and over,” said one US East Coast scrap insider. “If demand picks up, [the November outlook] will change, but, we’re not seeing that right now.”
“This has been the quietest I can remember [for scrap discussions] going into a new month,’’ quipped another Midwest insider. “However, I’m hearing sideways from the mills,” he said, following a report of a potential $10/gt increase from one Detroit-based scrap supplier. “Nobody is willing to work harder to make $10/gt less at the end of the year.”
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