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Are flat rolled prices to follow?
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The steel long products market (like rebar and wire rod) is enjoying a better-than-normal Q4 demand. Domestic steel mills are exercising unusual discipline regarding official price hikes.
Under normal circumstances, mills could easily push for and secure price increases. This time, however, they are holding their horses:
So, why the Disciplined Approach? This measured strategy is likely a shield against potential risks:
After multiple price increases since the tariff protection went up, and with input costs (scrap prices) slightly down, mills may not want to look overly greedy. Also, they are content to keep the price differential small, deliberately limiting the motivation for customers to turn to lower-priced imports.
Despite efforts to stave off imports, activity is solidifying for Q1 simply because domestic supply cannot cover current demand. The "AI Economy" is driving the construction sector, particularly a data center boom that is more than compensating for soft segments like housing. Plus, manufacturers and distributors are seeing Q1 demand pick up, but domestic rebar and wire rod mills are simply out of additional tonnage.
As a result, rebar inventories are rapidly diminishing. Master distributors, out of critical sizes, are holding onto meager stocks, and have raised their spot prices for truckload quantities. Few import shipments arriving are not enough to quickly replenish stocks.
Bucking this trend is flat-rolled pricing. Prices have actually fallen since June, and mills have struggled to raise their numbers.
This price depression was caused by two main factors: Increased production. Heavier-than-usual inventories built up to beat previous tariff increases.
However, almost all buyers now believe the market may have reached its bottom. Inventories are being drawn down, and with this correction in stock levels, pricing for Q1 should start to move upward soon enough. |
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| | | Will flat-rolled steel prices go up in Q1? |
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🎙️ Missed Episode 6? Catch up now — we dive into how planning and project stress levels are shaping both short- and long-term construction health across the U.S. From data center expansions to slower institutional spending, Episode 6 analyzes what the latest Dodge Momentum Index signals for early-stage construction and steel demand.
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⚙️ Steel Markets Are Tight — But StaalX Keeps You Ahead |
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Demand spikes and limited mill availability can delay projects — but StaalX gives you the tools to move faster and smarter.
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From rebar to wire rod, mesh, and merchant bars, StaalX helps builders and distributors source steel with speed and confidence.
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Watch our quick walkthrough to see how easy it is to get quotes, make offers, and purchase steel directly online. |
| | | | | From our content partner, SteelOrbis |
| | US import longs steady on tight supply as mills announce MBQ price increase
Thursday, 23 October 2025 21:05:38 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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US import long steel pricing was stable this week following reports indicating a mixed pricing situation one week earlier, even as the market was taken aback after several key US mills announced a $40/ton price increase for merchant bar quality steel (MBQ), market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
On Friday, Oct. 17, Irving, Tx.-based CMC Steel, announced a $40/ton ($44/mt) increase in its customer prices for MBQ steel. Following CMC’s announcement, on Monday, Oct. 20, Fort Wayne, Indiana-based Steel Dynamics, Inc., (SDI), Tampa,Fla.-based, Gerdau North America, and Houston, Tx.-based Deacero also announced their own $40/ton MBQ price increases. Interestingly, as of press time, Charlotte, NC.-based Nucor has yet to announce an equivalent increase. Insiders told SteelOrbis a lack of action by Nucor on MBQ might cause the recent price increase to be not accepted by the market.
“Domestic and import rebar and wire rod pricing are status quo this week,” commented one US Gulf Coast steel importer. “Considering how tight the domestic long steel markets remain at the moment, I would have expected a price increase announcement to come for rebar and not for MBQ,” he said. “As Nucor has yet to announce an increase, and they typically don’t like to follow the direction of other mills, it’s hard to believe that the price increase will be accepted by the marketplace. I’m thinking that if [Nucor] doesn’t announce a price increase by Friday, [Oct. 24], it’s unlikely to be accepted by the market.”
Another SteelOrbis insider commented on this week’s MBQ price increases. “For the other mills, I think it was a way to just extract another $40/nt from the market,” he said. “For Nucor though, they have much more significant downstream interests, and right now, it may not be a good time for them to raise prices. If Nucor fails to come out with an equivalent increase, I think the other mills will rescind their price increases, because most don’t want to have to start discounting programs again to maintain current customers.”
As reported previously in weekly SteelOrbis long steel market reports, US long steel mills continue to allocate supply because of ongoing sharp reductions in imports, the result of ongoing 50 percent steel tariffs and as 4th quarter mill maintenance operations continue. Spot prices are likely to remain little changed near term, insiders say, as US infrastructure spending continues to lag, even though long steel demand from data center construction activities continues to lend limited support.
On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar pricing is reported steady for a second week at $44.00-45.50/cwt., ($880-910/nt or $970-1,003/mt), following earlier reports that pricing had risen slightly from $43.50-45.50/cwt., ($870-910/nt or $959-1,003/mt) levels, amid reports of shrinking Gulf Coast inventories.
On the US East Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis remains unchanged for a second week at $44.00-46.00/cwt., ($880-920/nt or $970-1,014/mt). East Coast rebar importers expect local rebar to maintain its current limited premium to US Gulf Coast pricing owing to the continued paucity of imports heading into the 4th quarter.
“We’re hearing some limited December East Coast rebar import offers at $46.50/cwt., ($930/nt or $1,025/mt) which are unfortunately not that attractive, because the pricing still remains too close to domestic,” the East Coast rebar insider told SteelOrbis. For smaller customers though, we’re also hearing some limited offers from existing stock at $48-49/cwt., but those numbers are currently out of the market and unlikely to transact.”
On the raw materials front, during October scrap supply negotiations, US Midwest shredded scrap -a key US grade referenced in domestic rebar production- settled $10/gt lower on average at $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt). The current November US Midwest and East Coast scrap outlook is seen sideways for a second week, though insiders caution it remains fairly early to predict monthly supply discussions. And, as was reported earlier by SteelOrbis, recent US mill additions to domestic rebar production have yet to have a significant impact on reducing spot prices, especially since tariffs continue to slash imports.
“Export scrap flows to Turkey strengthened slightly recently, but US domestic availability remains comfortable, especially in the Midwest,” commented one US Gulf Coast long steel importer on the November scrap outlook. “The rebar to scrap spread remains near a two-year high at $628/nt ($681/mt), a strong indicator of mill profitability and cost stability.”
On the imported wire rod front, following minimal week-ago increases, CFR US Gulf Coast basis Free-Out wire rod mesh pricing is reported steady at $600-610/mt, not inclusive of Section 232 tariffs, spot traders told SteelOrbis this week. Wire rod mesh on a DDP loaded truck basis on the US Gulf Coast is discussed steady at $42-43/cwt., ($840-860/nt or $926-948/mt), though trading remains limited with Peoria, Illinois-based Liberty Steel reported to be operating near capacity, and several US mills in the US South and Southeast continuing to ramp up capacity, insiders said. |
| US domestic rebar and wire rod flat three months on low demand and flat scrap outlook
Thursday, 23 October 2025 21:12:22 (GMT+3) San Diego |
| US domestic rebar and wire rod prices were flat for a twelfth week straight amid continued limited spot market demand, even as a growing consensus within scrap trading circles finds that November domestic scrap pricing could settle sideways, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
In reaction to this week’s continuance of steady pricing, market respondents told SteelOrbis that domestic pricing is not the issue. “It’s availability,” remarked one US Midwest import insider. Another said, “Despite seasonal demand softening, mills continue to control allocation effectively, keeping supply disciplined and supporting firm values.”
In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions noted at $44.50-45.50/cwt, ($890-910/nt or $981-1,003/mt), on average $45.00/cwt, ($900/nt or $992/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
Market insiders told SteelOrbis that even though rebar and wire rod demand from nonresidential construction projects continues to lag, activity is likely to pick up in the new year. “Some fabricators have confirmed strong bidding activity for 2026; however, many projects are not yet released, suggesting a steady demand flow into early next year.”
Another rebar insider ventured a guess about pricing through the remainder of the 4th quarter.
“I think domestic rebar will be flat to maybe up $1.00-$1.50/cwt through the end of the year because domestic mills could become greedy,” he added.
In the domestic wire rod market, market insiders continue to report “regional tightness” regarding current wire rod supply, even though reports continue to circulate that Peoria, Illinois-based Liberty Steel has reached its 700,000 tons a year productive capacity.
Domestic wire rod supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions reported this week at $46.50-47.50/cwt ($930-950/nt or $1,025-1,047/mt), or an average of $47.00/cwt ($940/nt or $1,036/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
“Domestic demand and imports remain sluggish,” said another US Gulf Coast based long steel insider, commenting on the continuing tight supply situation. “I think the domestic market for rebar has to either increase toward $48/cwt., or import pricing has to dip toward $42-43/cwt for imports to work, as there has to be between $3-6/cwt., [of a] differential between imports and domestic pricing in order to effectively bring in supply.”
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| November US scrap still seen sideways following lower October settles
Thursday, 23 October 2025 19:38:52 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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US scrap pricing for November remained unchanged this week at sideways to recent lower October settlement prices, as continuing mill maintenance operations is expected to further cull demand for scrap next month, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
And while finished steel demand remains unremarkable as the US and global economies struggle with tariffs and limited growth, insiders said scrap flows into US Midwest and East Coast supply yards remain brisk, with inventory levels said to be adequate for now.
“There’s very little talk right now about November scrap,” said one mill-based scrap insider. “But, it’s feeling very sideways.” “I’ve heard quiet markets, and a sideways month [for November]” said another Midwest scrap insider. “I’ve got nothing new this week on the November outlook,” said still another New York State-based scrap supplier. “Nothing’s being talked about just yet for November, so I’d say sideways,” said a final Midwest scrap insider.
During the recent October scrap supply negotiations, insiders told SteelOrbis that a combination of maintenance activities, low export requirements for US scrap and adequate supply caused scrap prices to decline $10-20/gt ($892-17.86/nt or $9.83-19.69/mt) across the board versus September settles.
Based on a current sideways to October settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap -which settled on average $20/gt less during October negotiations- could settle for November in the US Ohio Valley at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt) on a delivered basis, while while shredded scrap, which saw a recent $10/gt monthly decline, could settle sideways near $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt), delivered. Ohio Valley HMS grades which moved $10/gt lower in October, could trade flat near $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled on average also $10/gt less in US domestic Midwest markets, could trade for November near $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt).
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material could trade flat near $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following October’s $20/gt delivered decline, while shredded grades are currently seen steady near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt) following the recent $10/gt October price dip. P&S and HMS grades could likely finish flat to the $10-15/gt lower October delivered price settles reported near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Insiders tell SteelOrbis scrap pricing might remain little changed through the end of 2025 as a result of continuing 50 percent steel tariffs and languishing local and export finished steel demand. And while the majority still expect flat pricing next month, one contact offered a different perspective.
“I think what we’re seeing now, we’ll see through the end of the year,” quipped one Midwest-based scrap insider to SteelOrbis this past week. Another said, “I have heard some (suppliers) say pricing for November could be up, as many (US hot roll mills) could be post maintenance, [finished with maintenance] and the Turks didn’t buy billets from China this month.”
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