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Other Long Products Hold Steady
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Several U.S. merchant bar producers announced a $40/short ton price increase this week. All eyes are now on Nucor, the market leader. Historically, such price hikes are rarely adopted by the market unless Nucor joins the chorus. Nucor typically makes their pricing decisions public toward the end of the week, so the market awaits their follow-up, which remains a strong possibility.
Long Products Enjoy Wide Margins
Other long products, including rebar, wire rod, and beams, remain tight with solid demand. Supply is supported primarily by domestic production due to high trade barriers. This stability is occurring even as raw material (scrap) prices decline, which has created a favorable, wide scrap-to-product spread for the mills. Producers are currently running at full capacity.
Thanks in part to the surge in AI-related data center investments, the construction sector remains highly active. Consequently, long steel producers are enjoying a surprisingly robust, typically quieter fourth quarter. With scrap costs down, it is unlikely they will pursue further price increases until next month.
Economic Headwinds and Resilience
The federal government is now in its fourth week of a shutdown, which has so far had a minimal impact on overall steel consumption. While the broader economy faces ongoing challenges—including potential easing by the Federal Reserve to avoid a significant slowdown and prevent employment rates from sliding—the U.S. economy remains resilient against earlier recession forecasts.
The momentum, especially from the booming data center and AI buildout, is strong enough to carry the industry forward. Companies not directly serving this specialized AI/data center demand may feel some pain, but the general market momentum is expected to hold until at least the middle of next year.
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| | | Will the recent $40/ton merchant bar price hike hold across the market? |
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🎧 Missed Episode 5? Don’t fall behind — hear how data center construction is raging while office construction may be next. From soaring rebar demand to shifting investment priorities, Episode 5 breaks down how the data center boom is reshaping steel consumption — and why the long-quiet office sector could soon follow.
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| | | | | From our content partner, SteelOrbis |
| | US import long steel pricing mixed on tight local supply, sideways November scrap
Friday, 17 October 2025 20:42:36 (GMT+3) San Diego |
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US import long steel pricing was mixed this week amid continued reductions in imports as a result of ongoing Section 232 steel tariffs, even as November shredded scrap pricing is now seen mostly sideways, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
During recent October scrap supply negotiations, US Midwest shredded scrap -a key US grade referenced in domestic rebar production- settled $10/gt lower on average at $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt).
Long steel market participants added that recent US mill additions to domestic rebar production have yet to have a significant impact on reducing reports of recent supply issues, especially since tariffs continue to slash imports.
“Nucor and CMC are still the major suppliers on the (US East Coast),” a US East Coast rebar insider told SteelOrbis. “And, while Gerdau and SDI are offering a little bar, [the Hybar mill is] still not making an impact. Nucor, NC, is also not yet making an impact yet on spot prices either.”
As reported previously in weekly SteelOrbis long steel market reports, US long steel mills continue to allocate supply because of sharp reductions in imports, the result of ongoing 50 percent steel tariffs and amid ongoing 4th quarter mill maintenance operations. And even as US infrastructure spending projects continues to lag expectations, they say, insiders add that fairly steady long steel demand from data center construction activities remains a key price support.
“Spot availability at the mill is non-existent for #4 bar especially,” the insider added, reporting domestic East Coast import rebar pricing on a loaded truck basis slightly lower on the week at $44.00-46/cwt. ($880- 920/nt or $970-1,014/mt) “Some of the larger sizes are available on a limited basis on the spot market, however, order entry control, (also known as) allocation, is still happening.”
On the US Gulf Coast, import rebar pricing is reported at $44.00-45.50/cwt.,($880-910/nt or $970-1,003/mt), up slightly from $43.50-45.50/cwt., ($870-910/nt or $959-1,003/mt), reported seven days earlier.
“We’re not seeing any Gulf Coast import rebar offers for less than $44.00/cwt out there this week,” a Midwest import insider said. “All of the lower priced inventory we saw previously on the ground in Texas pre-tariff appears to have been sold off.”
Another import insider said December spot pricing offers could move higher as Middle East suppliers continue to reduce export offers amid ongoing US anti-dumping investigations.
“We saw one import rebar offering for December,” the East Coast importer added. “However, I’m not sure it is going to materialize, as it was offered at a price comparable to the domestic pricing - maybe a little higher in some cases.”
This past week’s reports of limited import wire rod mesh supplies from Vietnam and Malaysia quoted on a DDP loaded truck basis on the US Gulf Coast at $42.00-43/cwt., ($840-860/nt or $926-975/mt), remained steady this week, though off from $42.50-43.50/cwt., two weeks earlier.
“There’s not many options out there for import supply from Middle East countries,” the Midwest importer said. “With the ongoing AD cases, other countries could step up efforts to provide supply, however, once they do, they will face the same 50 percent tariffs.”
CFR US Gulf Coast basis Free-Out rebar and wire rod mesh pricing is reported on average $10/mt higher at $600-610/mt, not inclusive of Section 232 tariffs, spot traders told SteelOrbis this week. |
| US domestic long steel pricing remains flat for eleventh week as demand remains balanced
Friday, 17 October 2025 22:56:59 (GMT+3) San Diego |
| US domestic rebar and wire rod prices were flat for an eleventh week, as more robust long steel demand for data center projects, continues to be offset by scant infrastructure project spending and recent lower monthly scrap pricing, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
With the US and global economies continuing to flounder, insiders told SteelOrbis that US data center construction remains one of the few positive drivers for increased rebar and wire rod demand, whereas other demand drivers such as that from ongoing infrastructure projects remains muted owing to uncertainty caused by ongoing Section 232 steel tariffs and high interest rates that make investments more risky.
In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions noted at $44.50-45.50/cwt, ($890-910/nt or $981-1,003/mt), on average $45.00/cwt, ($900/nt or $992/mt), unchanged from seven days ago.
Market respondents mentioned import offers are possibly coming from the Middle East or Turkey but explained there are not many options out there regarding imports. “Immediate spot pricing for imports is probably on par with domestic pricing,” a long steel insider told SteelOrbis.
In the domestic wire rod market, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis was assessed with most transactions reported steady for yet another week at $46.50-47.50/cwt ($930-950/nt or $1,025-1,047/mt), or an average of $47.00/cwt ($940/nt or $1,036/mt).
Wire rod pricing is likely to remain little changed near term, insiders said. “Liberty Steel has reached its production capacity this week,” one Midwest long steel importer reported. Calls to Liberty Steel to confirm its operational status were not immediately returned.
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| November US scrap seen sideways following lower October settles
Thursday, 16 October 2025 19:38:40 (GMT+3) San Diego |
| US scrap prices for November are seen mostly sideways to recent lower October settlements, fueled by continuing mill maintenance and unremarkable finished steel demand, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Despite claims from some scrap suppliers surveyed who reported that some yards were withholding supplies from the market, it appears from most surveyed that inflows into Midwest and Northeast collection yards remain active despite recent price declines.
“Yes sir, (collections are) flowing well,” remarked one Upstate New York-based scrap dealer, following the recent lower October settlements. “With the mills, we’ve been pretty busy,” he said. “The market was down $10/gt on shredded and P&S scrap, and down $20/gt on busheling. Everything else finished sideways.” Another US Midwest supplier remarked that his spot scrap demand remained limited. “We’re not really hearing much yet for November,” he said, leaning towards a sideways settlement. “A lot of people seem to be holding tons back. It’s very slow from a trucking standpoint right now, and so, the speculation is that December and January will be up.”
“I think what we’re seeing now, we’ll see through the end of the year,” commented another Midwest-based scrap insider, predicting a sideways November settlement. Another mill-based insider said, “sideways is the best call right now.” Still another added, “I have heard some (suppliers) say pricing for November could be up as many (hot roll mills) could be post maintenance, and the Turks didn’t buy billets from China this month.”
Based on a current mostly sideways to October settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap -which settled on average $20/gt less during October negotiations- could settle for November in the US Ohio Valley at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt) on a delivered basis, while shredded scrap, which saw a recent $10/gt monthly decline, could settle sideways near $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt), delivered. Ohio Valley HMS grades which moved $10/gt lower in October, could trade flat near $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled on average also $10/gt less in US domestic Midwest markets, could trade for November near $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt).
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material could trade at $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following October’s $20/gt delivered decline, while shredded grades are currently seen likely to settle flat near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt) following the recent $10/gt October price decline. P&S and HMS grades could likely finish flat to the $10-15/gt lower October delivered price settles near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt) respectively, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week. |
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