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June 26, 2025 at 8:34 PM

In the aftermath of tariff increase, more price increases are imminent

In the aftermath of tariff increase, more price increases are imminent

 Updates From This Week 

Both Rebar and Wire Rod prices strongly trending up

As the dust is settling on Trump's new and improved steel tariffs of 50%, domestic mills rushed and announced price increases for both rebars ($60 /ton are sticking) and wire rods ($40 /ton are sticking).  The domestic mills were measured and conservative in their increases, but as June is coming to a close, there are more price increases looming.  And this time, scrap prices may also go up a notch, helping the domestic price rally to continue.  


Price increases are all supply driven at the moment.  The steel demand is tepid with construction activity behind last year's pace, but demand may be on the way back again with the shock of the new administration subsiding and tariff policies are worked out by the giant and resilient US economy.  Construction starts rebounded across non-residential, industrial and residential sectors in May, beating the soft April construction starts.  


Rebar remains the weaker of the long products, with some inventories in the Gulf region as well as many cargoes in route that will be caught up in the tariff increase. Importers are anxiously waiting to see if the domestic prices will continue to lift so that they can pass the increased cost to their buyers.  

New orders are not yet possible with a massive disadvantage of paying 50%, the domestic pricing should go up at least another round or two to make the imports economically attractive again.  


Wire rod scenario is quite different. Left with aging wire rod mills, and no new investments in new wire rod production, downstream wire producers have to supplement their consumption with imports, even though imports may be higher priced than the domestic prices right now. The main import source, Canadian imports, mainly in sophisticated grades continue to come at higher prices than the domestic prices.  However, Canada is struggling to export any low carbon industrial quality wire rod as they are no longer competitive with domestic mills and other foreign sources. 

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From our content partner, SteelOrbis

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US import rebar and wire rod prices steady to up as importers take cues from domestic price movements

Friday, 20 June 2025 19:18:49 (GMT+3) San Diego

 

US import rebar and wire rod pricing was mostly steady to slightly higher. Importers are facing higher delivered costs amid ongoing Section 232 steel tariffs and are finding few buyers willing to accept higher price offers, even as domestic prices continue to trend steady to higher, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.

 

According to insiders, the June 4 doubling of steel tariffs from 25 percent to 50 percent could increase the delivered price of imported supplies by $6.00-$7.00/cwt., rendering much imported material uncompetitive against domestic supplies. Unless in-transit cargoes are sold at distressed prices, higher import pricing will enable domestic producers to raise prices further, potentially allowing importers to squeeze in limited sales at some point, they said. 


“On the import rebar side, we heard offers at $42.60/cwt ($852/nt or $939/mt) upriver barge and another at $41.95/cwt ($839/nt or $925/mt) for September arrival, but we’re not seeing much traction with no new sales concluded,” one import rebar market insider told SteelOrbis.

 

Since the week of June 4, when new 50 percent tariffs were announced, SteelOrbis data shows that the average domestic rebar price has risen 6.6 percent to $40.50/cwt. ($810/nt or $893/mt), while the average import rebar price has risen 16.9 percent to $41.50/cwt. ($830/nt or $915/mt). For wire rod, domestic and import prices have remained fairly steady, rising an average of 2.2 percent to an average of $46.00/cwt. ($920/nt or $1,014/mt).

 

“International long steel pricing hasn’t changed much, but tariffs are up,” commented another long steel importer. “Sellers aren’t offering too much supply right now because, with the ongoing 50 percent tariffs, import pricing just doesn’t work. However, we might get some more room on the import side with July scrap seen steady to higher.”

 

Following a mostly sideways June scrap settlement, July scrap is currently seen as steady to potentially higher, mostly due to expectations of fairly steady domestic demand from mills in the third quarter and potentially higher export demand for scrap next month, according to insiders.

 

On the US Gulf Coast, amid continued reports of high inventory, import rebar on a loaded truck basis in the Houston area was last offered at $41.00-$42.00/cwt., or an average of $41.50/cwt., steady with a week earlier but up from $35.00-$36.00/cwt., or an average of $35.50/cwt., two weeks ago. Inventory from Mexico staged in Texas on a loaded truck basis is offered at $40.00-$42.00/cwt., up from $39.50-$40.00/cwt. one week earlier. However, trading remains muted.

 

“Import offers have stabilized at higher levels supported by tariffs and limited new offers,” a Mexican long steel insider told SteelOrbis.

 

In the imported wire rod segment, pricing increased this week, though trading remains scarce, due to increased competition from domestic suppliers. Most transactions are priced at $45.50-$46.50/cwt. ($910-$930/nt or $1,003-$1,025/mt), up from the previous week's average price of $45.00/cwt.($900/nt or $992/mt).

 

According to insiders, the recent $40/nt price increase for domestic wire rod from steelmaker Nucor is expected to maintain strong wire rod pricing in the near term. Most of the price increase is expected to be accepted by the market, especially since import prices on the US Gulf Coast are near parity. The future of domestic wire and rod production from Peoria, Illinois-based Liberty Steel remains uncertain, as insiders tell SteelOrbis that “some issues remain with the plant.”

 


US domestic rebar prices remain unchanged for now, while wire rod offers rise

Thursday, 19 June 2025 17:48:01 (GMT+3) San Diego

 

US domestic long product prices have moved sideways to slightly up this week, primarily due to the absence of imports and cautious expectations for upward movement in July scrap prices, rather than an improvement in local demand.

 

In the weekly rebar spot markets, the domestic supply was assessed on an FOB mill basis, with most transactions noted at $40.00-41.00/cwt. ($800-820/nt or$882-904/mt), or on average $40.50/cwt. ($810/nt or $893/mt), unchanged from seven days ago. Some market sources expect workable rebar prices to inch up slightly in the coming weeks, as some restocking is expected. However, no dramatic increases are anticipated, at least for now. “There is too much  uncertainty for people (buyers) to proceed with substantial bookings. We currently have a 50% tax blocking imports, but only God and Trump know how  the situation will develop further,” an international trader told SteelOrbis. “Things are not quite the same now as they were after the Section 232 measures were first introduced several years ago.”

 

In the domestic wire rod market, most transactions were reported at an average of $46.00/cwt. ($920/nt or $1,014/mt), up $1.00/cwt. ($20/nt or$22/mt) from seven days ago. The domestic wire rod price is trending upward this week, despite the more plentiful supply. “Liberty Steel is active,” said a SteelOrbis insider. “They are producing as much as they can despite some ongoing issues at the plant.”


July US scrap outlook seen mostly sideways, though some Midwest suppliers expect higher prices

Thursday, 19 June 2025 23:05:25 (GMT+3) San Diego

 

US scrap price expectations for July are seen mostly sideways in market surveys this week, though some Midwest scrap suppliers told SteelOrbis that pricing could rise next month as supply appears to be declining. 


This would contrast with the recent sideways-to-higher June scrap market settlement, which occurred amid continued limited demand for export scrap and the implementation of doubled 50 percent steel tariffs by the US Trump administration on June 4.


“I think supply is tighter and demand is picking up,” commented one Midwest scrap supplier. “We’re hearing sideways to up $20-30/gt for next month.” 


Another scrap insider disagreed but did not offer an opinion on price. “I highly doubt that report because the domestic market is at least three weeks away from settling for July.”


Still another insider thought it was too early to predict the July scrap situation. “Maybe next week, we’ll get some ideas on the call for July.” 


While reaching a clear consensus on July scrap remains problematic, especially given the recent unrest in the Middle East, the recent movement in the finished steel markets would seem to support a potentially higher July settlement. 


In the finished steel markets, spot pricing continues to rise amid reports that the 50 percent steel tariffs will reduce import availability, allowing domestic suppliers to raise prices. However, more reports of buyer resistance to continued higher prices are beginning to emerge. 


“There’s a lot of buyer resistance (to higher prices) in this zip code,” said one Midwest flat steel insider. “Mills will get prices up eventually...by the mid-summer ... probably not,” he said. “But, as inventories dwindle with zero imports, TINA (there is no alternative) happens.” 


Based on the current sideways-to-higher July call, Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley could settle at or above the $435-460/gt ($442-467/mt) June settle, while shredded scrap might settle at or above $375-380/gt($381-386/mt). According to scrap insiders, Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades could settle at or above $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt), and $325-345/gt ($330-350/mt), respectively.


In the US Northeast, a sideways to potentially higher expectation for July might resulting busheling scrap prices settling at or above $380-400/gt ($386-406/mt), while shredded grades could settle at or higher than $325-335/gt($330-340/mt). P&S and HMS grades could settle at or above $295-305/gt($300-310/mt), and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respectively, insiders told SteelOrbis.

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