Import rebar and wire rod pricing in US begins upward creep ahead of likely March import tariffs
Thursday, 20 February 2005 23:00:45 GMT+3) San Diego
Import rebar and wire rod prices began to creep higher this week following a long period of stable pricing, as market insiders begin to come to terms with the likelihood that across the board import tariffs will go into effect on March 12, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
In the imported rebar markets, pricing advanced about $0.50-1.50/cwt. ($10/nt or $10/mt to $30/nt or $33/mt) as uncertainty over import tariffs drives new sales. Offers from Egypt are reported on a delivered-to-customer basis at $36.50/cwt. (3730/nt or 5805/mt), up from earlier weekly pricing at $35.00-38.00/cwt ($700-720/nt or 5772-794/mt). Offers from Vietnam for May delivery are last discussed at $34.50/cwt. ($890int or $701/mt), up from previous weekly assessments at $33.00/cwt. ($860/nt or $728/mt) delivered, while offers from Mexico on a Houston loaded truck basis are last at $37.50-39.50/cwt. (5750-790int or $827-871/mt up from recent reports at $37.00-38.00/cwt. ($740-700int or $816-838/mt).
Import rebar on a loaded truck basis at the US Gulf and US East Coast is discussed about $15int ($17/mt) higher at $35.75-38.75/cwt. (5715-735/nt or 3788-810/mt), up from $35.00-30.00/cwt ($700-720/nt or $772-704/mt) one week earlier.
On the import wire rod mesh front, import material on a DDP loaded truck basis. USG is discussed flat at $37.00/cwt. ($740/nt or 5816/mt), following earlier price strength as US markets advanced amid continued uncertainty regarding the planned restart of the Liberty, Steel wire rod plant this March.
The Trump administration is taking steel very seriously, an import insider told SteelOrbis. "It's clear that they will be coming to the table with trading partners in talks with a very definite plan to make the US steel industry more competitive
Part of that competitiveness, at least initially, could lead to rising long steel prices, he said.
"Right now, seems be a good time for importers to lock in contract pricing ahead of the tariffs which expected to go into effect in March, the import insider told SteelOrbis. "While it will take some time, steel buyers and distributors are focusing on building inventories right now in order to beat the March 12 deadline. That's why I expect US port prices to continue to creep higher."
The import insider added that recent US tariff exemptions on Ukrainian billets also is likely to end May 1, which could further increase the price of long steel rebar exports from Europe.
"The Ukrainian billet deal that was helping their pricing remain competitive is likely to be over," he added. "So, as a result, I am expecting import pricing to continue to tricikle higher." He continued, "so, as you can see, the level of uncertainty among importers and exporters remains high as to whether tariffs and country-specific steel quotas will be changing."
On the structural steel side, exporters remain vigilant for any updates from the Trump administration on tariff decisions expected by late February. They say the market could be headed higher because of potential stockpiling of rebar, MBQ and beams. As supply chains potentially change with tariffs, domestic mill pricing and lead time adjustments are likely in response to demand shifts, they say.
"Overall, the uncertainty will likely lead to short-term volatility, but a tariff decision in March could dictate the long-term market direction, one Mexican long steel exporter fold Steel Orbis. "If imposed, expect higher domestic prices and a restructuring of supply chains in Q2".
This week, steelmakers Nucor and Deacero both announced a $60/nt (566/mt) or $3.00/cwt., increases in the price of its merchant and structural shape steel products effective with new orders received after the close of business on February 17, although confirmed orders will remain price protected if shipped by February 28. In a letter to its customers. DeAcero-Mid-Continent Steel and Wire said the company reserves the right to change pricing if the United States levies a tariff against Mexico.
US domestic rebar and wire rod prices both up this week
Thursday, 20 February 2025 00:43:57 (GMT+3) San Diego
US domestic rebar and wire rod prices have both increased this week. In fact, all product lines are up due to the recent tariff announcement by President Trump.
In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis is assessed with most transactions noted at $39.00-40.50/cwt ($780-808/nt or $860-891/mt), on average $39.75/cwt. ($795/nt or $876/mt), up $1.00/cwt ($20/nt or $22/mt) from seven days ago.
There has been a continued shortage of wire rod supply due to the Liberty Steel halt in production. "The Liberty Steel mill is saying if they begin to receive funding, they will start melting metal come March and April," according to a SteelOrbis insider. In the domestic wire rod market, most transactions were reported this week at $41.00-42.00/cwt. ($820-840/nt or $904-926/mt), or an average of $41.50/cwt. ($830/nt or $915/mt), up $0.50/cwt. ($10/nt or $11/mt) from seven days ago.
Overall, demand is low due to the pricing increases. Most are still uncertain what is next for US tariffs and are describing this time in history as an ever-changing waiting game. "Overall, the uncertainty will likely lead to short-term volatility, but a tariff decision in March could dictate the long-term market direction. If imposed, expect higher domestic prices and a restructuring of supply chains in the second quarter," says another market insider.
March scrap seen up $30-$40/gt than February settled prices, though some predict even bigger increases as supplies remain thin
Friday, 21 February 2025 00:34:35 (GMT+3) San Diego
March scrap pricing in the US Midwest is seen up between $30-40/gt ($30-41/mt) from February settles as inventories continue to be reported at low levels at both mills and suppliers, though a few contacts predict some sales could be done as high as $80/gt ($81/mt) premiums over February settles as continued cold weather and equipment-related problems continue to impede the processing and delivery of local scrap, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Some Midwest mills remain conservative regarding likely March price increases. "I think we're going to be up $30-40/gt from February," one mill contact said.
At this week's Recycled Material Association (ReMa) Consumer's Night scrap conference in St. Louis, Missouri, scrap contacts told SteelOrbis that continued slow manufacturing activity in the US continues to reduce the amount of available prime busheling scrap. Most expect US scrap pricing to continue strong across all grades, especially if recent cold weather in the eastern two-thirds of the US continues.
"I have access to a whole lot of new steel (automotive) rotors that were deemed defective that will be available as busheling scrap for March, one contact told SteelOrbis. "I think the US scrap market is likely to be really solid over the next several months."
A US East Coast market insider surveyed before the ReMa conference earlier in the week was less enthusiastic about scrap
pricing.
"Every year for the past 50 years, we see scrap prices rise during the winter and then decline as spring nears," he said. "Right now, for the month of March, US mills are at $40/gt higher in the Midwest for auto-shredded scrap, however on the US East Coast, Turkey is not coming in and setting the market like they used to, with demand and production off, so it is harder to get a handle on monthly pricing."
"We're hearing that another mill in the Chicago market is out of scrap." remarked a Midwest scrap supplier. "We hear that some mills are willing to pay upwards of $80/gt from February (settles) to secure 20,000 tons of (shredded) supply. Mills don't have inventory right now," he said.
While no concrete market consensus is yet forthcoming for the March US East Coast scrap market, following February's $20/gt ($20/mt) increase, it's also problematic at this point to assess with much confidence where March US Midwest pricing is likely to settle given this week's wide range of March price expectations. One thing seems certain though, that unless spring arrives in a hurry and demand for scrap at mills is quenched, it's likely busheling scrap prices in the US Midwest could continue their advance above the $500/gt ($508/mt) level.
Based on a $30-40/gt increase from February monthly buy-cycle settles, Ohio Valley HMS 1 could settle near $410-430/gt ($417-437/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded scrap could settle near $465-470/gt ($472-478/mt) on a delivered basis. P&S is likely to settle near $456-$466/gt ($463-473/mt) delivered to customer, while prime busheling could settle around $490-515/gt ($498-523/mt) delivered to customer.
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