Updates From This Week How will the supply of long products change in January and beyond? After Liberty idled their wire rod plants in Peoria, IL, Nucor announced this week that they too are ceasing wire rod production at their Connecticut plant. This is another major wire rod supplier exiting the supply market citing difficult conditions as well as increased imports from Greece, Poland, Ukraine, and Canada, all exempt from Section 232 tariffs. The plant will probably operate and produce rods for a number of months from their billet inventory and cease production of wire rod thereafter, while they continue to produce mesh and rebars. The wire rod supply from the EU with Ukrainian billets hasn't been very consistent, yet Canadian supply has. They have been very regular this year supplying most of the customers in the rust belt. But now that Trump has threatened to put tariffs on Canada, they too are quite uncomfortable and not yet offering beyond January production. The uncertainty of tariffs for Canada and Mexico coupled with the mill closures is going to put a major strain on wire drawers in the first quarter. Because they are experiencing soft demand themselves, there is no panic yet. Also, wire drawers made some hedge buying from other import sources like Malaysia, Vietnam and Egypt in Q4 of 2024, anticipating Liberty not coming back. Some of these shipments are expected to arrive in January and February, relieving the pressure. On the rebar side, contrarily, things are quiet. Import pricing doesn't get much traction and the domestic mills keep fighting for the tons so domestic rebar is still a bargain compared to the imports. However, a slight pop in demand can also throw the market into a frenzy. Yet, in 2025 there will be a lot more tons produced in the US and they will replace imports further, especially if new additional tariffs are implemented. No one knows what the new trade barriers will look like for steel but Trump is promising to keep the tariffs strategic and to keep the US Steel alive with the tariff policy. That means a renewed round of additional tariffs for steel specifically and/or lifting the favorite status of Canada, Mexico and other countries like EU, UK, Korea, Japan and Brazil altogether. Quality Pipes, Reliable Supply StaalX now provides shipments of high-quality steel pipes, available to meet our clients’ needs. Reach out to us today at trading@staalx.com to see how we can help you.  StaalX is attending World of Concrete & SteelOrbis Events  StaalX proudly sponsors SteelOrbis' Rebar & Wire Rod conference on Monday, January 20, 2025. This is the only steel-focused event scheduled alongside the World of Concrete — a can’t-miss networking opportunity for concrete reinforcing professionals. Our CEO, Murat Askin, will be moderating and speaking at the event, sharing valuable insights with attendees. Click the image above to learn more about the event and register! We also look forward to meeting you at our N2844 booth at the World of Concrete to learn about your needs and how StaalX can help you source competitively priced products when you need them.  From our content partner, SteelOrbis  US domestic rebar pricing creeps higher as mills pull low-priced offers, wire rod prices reported flat | Thursday, 19 December 2024 22:27:25 (GMT+3), San Diego US domestic rebar pricing was up slightly this week as domestic mills were reported to be pulling earlier low-priced offers for remaining December spot material ahead of the Christmas and New Years holidays, while wire rod pricing was largely flat amid scant new demand for product this week, market insiders told SteelOrbis. Insiders reported that domestic mills reduced the number of low-price offers, as some expect improved January pricing. Doing so, insiders said, caused prices on new deals to creep higher as the week advanced. SteelOrbis data shows rebar pricing rose about $20/ton ($22/mt), even as activity continued limited. "Rebar (markets) have been slow because there has not been (much) new demand," said a market insider. Another East Coast rebar trader added, "I expect (domestic) long steel pricing to remain little changed through the end of the year, even as mills continue to try to push prices higher where they can." In the weekly rebar spot markets, domestic supply on an FOB mill basis is assessed with most transactions noted at $36.00-37.00/cwt. ($720-740/nt or $794-816/mt), on average $36.50/cwt. ($730/nt or $805/mt), up $1.00/cwt., or $20/nt ($22/mt) from seven days earlier. Insiders said owing to continued low finished steel demand, recent lower-priced Chicago shredded scrap for December delivery had little effect on rebar pricing. December shredded scrap vicinity Chicago settled $10/gt less versus November on a delivered to customer basis at $375-381/gt ($381-386/mt). January scrap is last discussed sideways to soft-sideways to December values on a continuation of limited finished steel demand, insiders said. In the wire rod markets, pricing was flat on reported low demand, even as uncertainty remains high about the much-anticipated March 2025 return of Liberty Steel's wire and rod production plant in Peoria, Illinois. In the domestic wire rod market, most transactions were reported at $39.50-40.50/cwt. ($790-810/nt or $871-893/mt), or an average of $40.00/cwt. ($800/nt or $882/mt), unchanged from seven days ago. Wire rod insiders fear continuing financial troubles with Liberty Steel's UK-based parent company GFG Alliance could keep the mill shuttered unless domestic pricing improves substantially in Q1. Some contend increased tariffs with the incoming US president could be supportive of that outcome. "As we get closer to the end of the year, the market will most likely be stagnant due to the impending inventory tax and the holiday season," another long steel insider told SteelOrbis. In some states, rebar inventory on the ground as of Jan.1 is taxed at a rate of 3-5 percent, so many suppliers are more motivated to clear inventory or buy just what they absolutely need, they said. US import rebar and wire rod markets mixed with holiday preparations, growing tariff uncertainty limits trade | Thursday, 19 December 2024 22:19:15 (GMT+3), San Diego "Before the end of 2024, nobody wants to make too many decisions about steel, especially with the uncertainty concerning whether Trump will bring on additional tariffs on Canada and Mexico in the new year," one long steel import insider remarked to SteelOrbis. "We expect pricing to be fairly flat through the end of the year, with the likelihood that we'll see higher prices toward the end of January and into February once we know more about what Trump will do with tariffs." The incoming US president has proposed 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they fail to take concrete steps to control the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants across the US border. Additional 10 percent tariffs are proposed on China over concerns over fentanyl. Some market insiders fear the costs to US industry may be high enough that they will become economically and politically unsustainable, even more so if Mexico retaliates, as has been threatened by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. On the import rebar front, pricing was mixed with marginal price increases reported on sales from Egypt at $36.50/cwt. ($730/nt or $805/mt), up from reported stable markets a week earlier on a delivered to customer basis at $35.75/cwt. ($715/nt or $788/mt). Insiders said they expect import pricing from Egypt to remain in the $36.60-37.00/cwt., range through year end, with additional near-term cargoes from Malaysia and Vietnam expected to keep prices in check. On the US Gulf Coast, imported rebar is priced $35.75- 36.75 cwt. ($715-735/nt or $788-810/mt) on a loaded truck basis, up about $0.25/cwt., or $5/nt from a week earlier on slightly improved sales, insiders said. Conversely, pricing slipped about $0.50/cwt., or $10/nt for East Coast loaded truck basis rebar to $35.75-36.75/cwt. ($715-735/nt or $788- 810/mt), off from $36.25-37.25 cwt. ($725-745/nt or $799- 821/mt), one week ago. "There's still not that many imports managing to get in," commented one import rebar insider. "With domestic rebar priced at $36.50/cwt., this week, there's little room left for imports to compete, so some pricing had to move a bit lower to fit." In the Mexican export markets, insider say pricing remains "not in the ballpark," as many buyers remain hesitant to engage with sellers as a result of tariff uncertainty in the new year. "There's quite a bit of concern over import policy with Trump heading into the new year. Pricing has moved lower because people are unsure what's going to happen," said one rebar insider. Mexican rebar vicinity Houston on a loaded truck basis is discussed at $35.75-36.75/cwt. ($715-735/nt or $788- 810/mt), off from $35.75-37.75/cwt. ($715-755/nt or $788- 832/mt) reported one week ago. On the import wire rod mesh front, import material on a DDP loaded truck basis USG is discussed flat at $37.00/cwt. ($740/nt or $816/mt), following earlier weekly price strength as US markets moved higher amid uncertainty regarding the anticipated restart of the Liberty Steel wire rod plant in March 2025. "People are out of the market and not buying much," remarked one US Gulf Coast importer. "The first quarter is coming soon, and imports still remain weak, despite the Liberty outage." January US scrap call now sideways as markets remain slow after New Year holiday | Friday, 03 January 2025 16:33:45 (GMT+3), San Diego January domestic US scrap prices are now discussed at sideways to December values following the New Year holidays, scrap market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. This week's January scrap call differs from that offered seven days earlier that called the January market sideways to potentially higher following the Christmas holiday, based on higher anticipated demand from steel mills heading into the new month. Talk about increased demand from mills was not noted this week. "The markets remain very quiet following the New Year holiday," remarked one Midwest scrap insider, adding, "There was little talk about January scrap this morning, but the latest we're hearing is sideways, as the scrap yards are still slow, at least in this area." "We're hearing steady right now for January scrap," said another Midwest scrap dealer, noting, "Nothing's really going to happen until probably next week." A third respondent echoed the sentiments of the first two scrap insiders. "I'm hearing sideways for January," the third contact told SteelOrbis, adding, "We won't know more until very likely next week." No updated call for the US Northeast January scrap was noted, so it will be maintained at sideways to December as was earlier reported two weeks ago. Recently, January scrap calls expecting higher values versus December were based on expectations that there are a larger number of finished steel production days in January versus the previous month, as well as the likelihood that a larger number of electric arc furnaces will be online for January versus December. Conversely, the earlier sideways to lower predictions for the new month were based on an outlook that had finished steel demand flat until later in the first quarter of 2025. During the December buy-cycle, Ohio Valley scrap settled sideways to down $10/gt ($10/mt), Steel Orbis' data show, with HMS I down $10/gt to $320-340/gt ($325-345/mt) delivered to customer, shredded scrap down $10/gt to $375- 380/gt ($381-386/mt) on delivered basis, while P&S settled $10/gt lower at $366-$376/gt ($372-382/mt) delivered to customer. Busheling settled sideways to November at $390- 415/gt ($396-422/mt) on delivered to customer basis. In the US Northeast, pricing was down across the board for December, though the declines were less severe owing to scrap export opportunities, insiders said. HMS settled down just $2/gt from November settled prices at $335-350/gt ($340-356/mt) delivered to customer, while shredded saw pricing down $5/gt to $365-375/gt ($371-381/mt) delivered. P&S settled down $5/gt at $335-345/gt ($340-351/mt) on delivered basis, while busheling scrap was also down $5/gt, to $390-410/gt ($395-417/mt) delivered to customer, market insiders told SteelOrbis. 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