Updates From This Week Will December end with no more bookings for imports? Customers across the US are now in full holiday mood with little interest to book something urgently. Despite the earlier enthusiasm after the US elections, the entire steel market settled to a lower gear and the lack of demand is apparent for many products. Industrial production is down for the third consecutive month in November, down 0.7% year-to-date and manufacturing capacity utilization is at a seven-year low (excluding the pandemic). There are also concerns that Trump's new tariffs can hurt some construction projects by increasing the forecasted costs out of proportion. Everyone is hoping that the recent slowdown is holidays and weather related and not so much that the economy is heading for a recession. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point this week, which will be a welcomed help to keep the US economy from entering a recession. January will be a very tricky month with Trump’s promises of tariffs, even towards our largest trading partners Mexico and Canada. Will he leave the rest of the steel tariffs unchanged? Steelmakers are already demanding more protection from the upcoming administration. Will the new administration still be sympathetic after six years of blanket protection of tariffs? These are the big unknowns and hardly worth to speculate on until late January. We will wait and see. For now, the steel is plentiful and prices are quite stable, at least for rebars. Yes there is a slight up trend but mill reps are still active, asking for orders and promising no increases in January. Buyers are playing along and not jumping on imports for March or April deliveries, at least not quite yet. For wire rods, the flurry of import activity for Q1 has ended. Most buyers hedged with imports from Canada, Asia and North Africa against the production hole the shut down Liberty mill left the market with. Liberty Steel said in a statement that they are hoping to be back in production in March but few people can really plan their business according to their statement. StaalX team wishes you a happy holiday season and a fantastic 2025 for your families and businesses. We thank you for your readership and interest in our newsletter. Quality Steel, Reliable Service StaalX takes the stress out of steel procurement. We provide peace of mind through every step of the way for steel orders, ensuring best practices during production and transit according to customer specifications. Reach out to us today at trading@staalx.com to see how we can help you. Below is a recent shipment of prime wire rod en route to our clients. .jpg) StaalX Sponsors the 2025 Annual Rebar & Wire Rod Conference  StaalX proudly sponsors SteelOrbis' Rebar & Wire Rod conference on Monday, January 20, 2025. This is the only steel-focused event scheduled alongside the World of Concrete — a can’t-miss networking opportunity for concrete reinforcing professionals. Our CEO, Murat Askin, will be moderating and speaking at the event, sharing valuable insights with attendees. Click the image above to learn more about the event and register! We also look forward to meeting you at our N2844 booth at the World of Concrete to learn about your needs and how StaalX can help you source competitively priced products when you need them.  From our content partner, SteelOrbis  Nucor CSP for hot-rolled coils steady for sixth week at $750/nt, Cleveland Cliffs increases February price | Monday, 16 December 2024 19:37:53 (GMT+3), San Diego Nucor's (CSP) -the price charges for hot-rolled coils across all of its mills- was steady for a sixth week today, even as US steel market participants continue to report tepid activity and unremarkable demand in US flat steel markets. Last week, competitor Cleveland Cliffs increased its February spot price. In its usual Monday letter to customers, Nucor said its CSP was stable at $750/nt ($827/mt) or $37.50/cwt., FOB mill, up from $740/nt ($816/mt) or $37.00/cwt., most recently for the weeks of November 4 and October 28. Since October 14, the CSP price has increased by nearly 4.2 percent, while since July 15, the CSP has risen nearly 15.4 percent. The Nucor CSP price is currently priced at a discount to its nearest competitor Cleveland Cliffs, which announced last week a $50/nt ($55.12/mt) price increase for its February Hot Rolled Market Price to $800/nt FOB mill. In the flat steel markets, the SteelOrbis spot weekly average for HRC was noted $1.00/cwt., or $20/nt ($22/mt) less last week at $675/nt ($744/mt), delivered to customer, off from $680-710/nt ($750-783/mt), or $34.00- 35.50/cwt., seven days earlier. Nucor's California Steel Industries (CSI) monitor was also reported steady for a sixth week at $810/nt ($893/mt) or $40.50/cwt., following its last $10/nt ($11/mt) increase on October 30. Over the past several months, flagging finished steel demand resulted in Nucor reducing its CSP as low as $650/nt ($717/mt), or $32.50/cwt. during the week of July 15. Since that time, however, prices have fallen only once for two weeks on October 14 and October 21 to $720/nt ($794/mt) or $36.00/cwt., from $730/nt ($805/mt) or $36.50/cwt. Market insiders told SteelOrbis earlier that Nucor has kept its posted CSP pricing above the mills' $32.50/nt variable cost of doing business because selling below that price could cause the mill to lose money, they said. Since the first series of price increases were announced on July 29, Nucor's CSP has increased 11.1 percent to its recent $750/nt high. Prior to the increases, Nucor's CSP price had lost nearly 22 percent of its value on flagging demand for finished steel products since the CSP was first released in early April at $830/nt ($915/mt) or $41.50/cwt. Scrap insiders said mills initially sought $10-$20/gt discounts for their meager December scrap requirements, though settled at sideways to $10/gt less in the Ohio Valley as suppliers held their ground amid continued scarce inventory. Chicago shredded scrap settled $10/gt less at $375-380/gt ($381-386/mt), while busheling was flat at $390-415/gt ($396-422/mt). Scrap pricing in the US Northeast settled just $2-$5/gt less on better export opportunity, insiders said, with HMS 1 scrap settled $2/gt less at $335-350/gt ($340-356/mt). And, despite the mixed flat steel pricing, and flat to lower December scrap, mills continue to post pricing nearly 10 percent above spot prices reported this week. Nucor kept its Consumer Spot Price CSP at $750/nt FOB mill this week for a fifth week, while competitor Cleveland-Cliffs advanced its spot price by $50/gt to $800/gt FOB mill for February. Some insiders say the difference between weekly posted mill pricing and spot market pricing is mostly a distraction and means little. "To be honest, the Nucor CSP does not really mean much," said one flat steel market insider ahead of the December 13 Cliffs HRC price hike announcement. "I really think that the current price (CSP) is the value that (Nucor) wants to achieve in January spot markets, so they'll probably start to announce price hikes." In the flat steel markets, the SteelOrbis spot weekly average for HRC was noted $1.00/cwt., or $20/nt ($22/mt) less at $675/nt ($744/mt), delivered to customer, off from $680-710/nt ($750-783/mt), or $34.00-35.50/cwt., seven days ago. Market insiders report lead times for HRC from mills little changed at 3-6 weeks, indicating markets remain well supplied. In other flat steel markets, CRC was reported $5/nt ($5/mt) higher in thin but improved trade at $905-915/nt ($997-1,009), or $45.25-45.75/cwt., delivered to customer, up from previous pricing reported flat for the two prior weeks at $900-$910/nt ($992-1,003/mt) or $45.00-45.50/cwt. With HRC down and CRC up, the spread between the two key steel grades is reported at $235/nt ($259/mt), or $11.75/cwt., up from $210/nt ($231.50/mt), or $10.50/cwt., one week ago. Spot HDG is reported on average flat to week-ago levels at $865/nt ($954/mt), or $43.25/cwt delivered to customer, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
As anticipated by SteelOrbis, the large gap between ex-US and ex-EU prices in Turkey's import scrap market could not be sustained and European scrap prices have increased quickly. On December 12, ex-Europe prices increased by $8.5/mt. The positive sentiment in Turkey's import scrap market strengthened with each new deep sea scrap booking. Turkish mills have a long way to go to complete their purchases for January shipment, and so some market sources have started to expect ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices to move above $350/mt CFR. Being a short month, December supports sellers' sentiments given the limited trading time and the cold weather conditions. As Turkish mills are making scrap inquiries in high numbers, particularly the long steel producers, deep sea scrap prices continue to increase with each deal. With several transaction surfacing the Turkish import scrap market today, December 13, deep sea scrap prices have continued their uptrend. SteelOrbis hears that European scrap offers are now at around $345-350/mt CFR, again pushing up ex-US offers from $350s/mt CFR to $355s/mt CFR. While sellers are believed to have enough tonnages to cover Turkey's need for January shipments, they are also staying a step back from the market due to their expectations of higher price levels in the coming period. According to sources, "All will depend how sellers behave. If they can maintain their current attitude and wait, higher levels towards $360s/mt CFR for HMS I/II 80:20 may be possible. If suppliers like the current numbers, trading may accelerate, and price may stabilize." Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 2.52 percent week on week. The prices are now 4.55 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $342-350/mt CFR. US scrap prices for the month of December have settled sideways to down in the Ohio Valley and lower overall across the US Northeast region this week as new scrap demand from mills was reported to be minimal, scrap market insiders told SteelOrbis this week following the completion of the December buy-cycle. Market insiders reported Midwest mills initially sought $10-20/gt ($10-20/mt) discounts for December, even as suppliers did their best to hold their ground, despite continuing reports of weak mill order books coming into the new month. US scrap prices in the Ohio Valley for December have settled sideways to down $10/gt, while prices in the US Northeast region for December have settled down $2-5/gt, both versus November values. SteelOrbis has learned that the current price for Mexican domestic shredded scrap has decreased by MXN 100/mt ($5/mt) over the past week to MXN 6,150/mt ($298/mt). Additionally, HMS I/II scrap prices have declined by MXN 100/mt ($5/mt) to MXN 4,550/mt ($221/mt) over the same period. Local scrap prices in Italy have fallen by about €5/mt this week, marking an overall decrease of €10-15/mt compared to end-of- November levels. According to market players, most steel mills are not interested in buying scrap due to the impending production halts. One contact stated that he expects a stable market in January as production stops have been reduced to 10-20 days compared to the previously expected one month. Another source said he agreed, because the recent rise in deep sea scrap prices in Turkey may support Italian scrap prices again. According to a steel mill official, however, further declines are possible in the new year as there is no positive news on the finished steel side. For the second month in a row, the Kanto scrap export tender in Japan has been closed with a price decline, as recorded on December 11. Downward pressure on Japanese scrap export offers persists in the market as the buyer regions are slowing their purchases ahead of the end of the year. In the Kanto export tender, the highest bid was at JPY 42,739/mt FAS, JPY 2,441/mt lower than last month. The dollar-based price has decreased from $293/mt to $280/mt FAS, taking exchange rate changes into account. The leading Japanese EAF-based steel producer Tokyo Steel has announced its new prices for domestic scrap purchases, for the first time since late October. The producer has mostly kept its prices stable, except in the Kyushu region where it has cut its price slightly. The announcement came after the Kanto tender, in which the export price dropped by $13/mt on FAS basis. Tokyo Steel's general range for H2 grade scrap remains stable at JPY 40,000-41,500/mt ($263-273/mt) depending on the mill. However, due to the appreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, the dollar-based equivalent has moved up by $2/mt. Meanwhile, Tokyo Bay FAS-based prices for H2 grade scrap are currently at JPY 42,500/mt ($279/mt). This level shows that FOB prices are now at JPY 43,500/mt ($288/mt) for this grade. South Korean steel producer POSCO has kept its bids for Japanese scrap stable once again this week. A source at a major South Korean steelmaker commented, "Due to the lower HMR (hot metal ratio), they [POSCO] consumed lots of scrap rather than iron ore. That is why they still buy from Japan. Low stock [levels] made POSCO keep buying from Japan as much as possible." POSCO has shared bids for Japanese HS grade scrap at JPY 50,000/mt ($326/mt) CFR, stable as compared to November 29, though, amid the fluctuation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar, dollar-based prices have dropped by $7/mt over this period. POSCO also shared bids for Japanese shredded scrap at a stable level of JPY 48,000/mt ($313/mt) CFR. Considering the gap between ex-Japan shredded and H2 scrap prices at around JPY 3,000-4,000/mt, this means indications for ex-Japan H2 prices for South Korea are at JPY 41,000-42,000/mt FOB or $267-273/mt FOB. While Taiwan's import scrap market has continued to soften this week, market sources report that Japanese scrap suppliers have been struggling to keep up with the downward trend of ex-US scrap prices. Taiwanese producers finally concluded some rebar deals last week, but the tonnage is reported to have been limited. This week, offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers have dropped by $5/mt on the upper end to $295-300/mt CFR. Some Taiwanese producers have concluded bookings for this grade at $290-297/mt CFR. The few offers shared for Japanese H1/2 (50:50) scrap bulk have moved up slightly from last week's $310-325/mt CFR range to $320-323/mt CFR. The import scrap market in Vietnam has gained some strength this week. Despite the decline observed in the Japan-based Kanto scrap export tender, the current offer levels from Japan are higher than Vietnamese buyers' bids. Offers for Japanese H2 scrap to Vietnam have increased slightly over the past week from $333-335/mt CFR to $335/mt CFR. Ex-US bulk HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offer prices have remained stable over the past week at $360/mt CFR, with some sources reporting there is a tendency towards an upward push on prices in the market. Do you have any questions? Check out our FAQ!Check out the most frequently asked questions about the service and products of StaalX. We are always here to chat with you in the chat boxes from the site or on the support telephone number below. Contact us support@staalx.com or +1 (708) 697-3227 Follow StaalX on |
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