Domestic mills are itching to raise their prices

Is the demand strong enough to enable a price hike in December? 

There is a lot of enthusiasm for 2025 in the construction sector.  Donald Trump has won the US elections, and a lot of regulations and red tape should be eliminated to clear the way for a robust commercial and residential construction.  The US economy is doing well and is expected to switch to a higher gear under the new president's administration.  But the long awaited robust steel consumption remains to be elusive.  

New trade barriers against foreign steel are also inevitable.  Already, steel makers are asking for more protection from the upcoming Trump administration on top of countless antidumping, countervailing, anti-circumvention, Section 232 and Section 301 duties and tariffs.  Despite all these protections that are already in place, some US steel mills are still struggling to make money.  

For example, Liberty Steel in Peoria has now temporarily shut down both their steel making and wire production despite all the protections they have from foreign competition.  They are saying they will be back sometime in Q1 2025, but most low carbon rod buyers are questioning if that's really going to happen and now have to switch to their Plan B of running their wire plants with some Q1 imports from Egypt, Vietnam and Malaysia.  

Steelmakers say that only 20% of the imports are taxed with tariffs but in case of low carbon wire rod and rebar, this percentage is almost 90%.  Only some selective imports of long products made with Ukrainian billets are tariff free with a presidential proclamation.  With Trump coming, the favorable status of long products made with Ukrainian steel will also fall by the wayside.  Trump has already threatened to put 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports, which is coincidentally the exact rate of the Section 232 tariffs since 2018.  

For now, better demand and reduced foreign competition are supporting domestic prices, which are trending slightly upward but remain relatively stable overall.  Unlike the rod mills that were able to push some price increases, rebar mills were divided on a price increase.  Nucor didn't follow last month's price increase announcements by other mills, effectively throwing cold water on the market.  This month, they might find a stronger outlook to go for it.  Right now it's a no-brainer to buy what one needs as there is almost zero chance that the market will go down in Q1.