We have been down this road before. In his first term, President Trump chose to use steel as his favorite weapon to start his tariff agenda. As a result, 25% tariffs were tacked on to steel imports and while Biden criticized the tariff in his election campaign, he kept and strengthened the trade barriers during his presidency. However, Biden didn't do anything radical which was also expected from Harris' presidency. Now Trump will be back in the white house, all bets are off and we should be prepared for another four years of a wild ride in steel trade.
Of course this is good news for domestic steel makers whose stocks rallied on the news. Clearly the market is expecting further protection of the domestic steel producers from the imports but also a boost to the economy and less regulations.
Tax cuts and eliminating over the top regulation is good for business but Trump also pledged across the board tariffs for all products, especially blocking all Chinese goods being imported. Steel already has tariffs and hundreds of active cases of antidumping, countervailing and anticircumvention orders, making steel one of the most protected commodities in the US. Despite overwhelming import protection, and highest steel prices in the world, some domestic steel mills are still struggling to make money. For example, Cliffs recently missed their Q3 earnings and Liberty Steel and Wire temporarily halted their Peoria, IL wire rod mill. Some US mills are now overly reliant on protection from the government and won't survive a post tariff environment. But they shouldn't worry about tariff-free steel trade for at least another four years. Moreover, more trade barriers will likely be erected. Some surprise quick implementations may again cause scrambling by traders and end-users that rely on imports. There is not enough steel production in the country to take care of commodity and specialty steel demand.
Today's news will likely bring some enthusiasm about 2025 for steel producers and consumers but this week's market snapshot is not particularly strong. Both wire rod and rebar mills are trying to raise their prices without much success at the moment. Momentum and pricing trend is slightly up but better news has to come for the steel market to move to a higher gear. | 
