It seems that scrap prices have finally bottomed out and on the way up again. A bump of $20 /ton on shredded scrap is expected so how would that affect the long products pricing?
Although a reversal of raw materials is welcomed by the rod and rebar producers in the US and buyers and sellers of these products, it's probably not enough encouragement to attempt to get the prices up. Demand for long products is increasingly getting weak and an increase attempt will almost definitely won't hold and embarrass the mills attempting a price increase.
In the meantime, mills are quietly lowering their prices for their main customers that don't need to buy domestic rebars. There aren't a great deal of import offers that can compete with the low domestic prices now. Import offers would be too close to domestic. Only some EU made products with Ukrainian billets can provide 10-15% discount to the general import levels because they are tariff exempt.
Similar landscape applies to the wire rod side of imports. Low carbon imports have diminished over a year ago with only occasional import vessels showing up with smaller lots from Asia. Otherwise some Greek and Polish origin with Ukrainian billets find bigger volumes providing a greater buffer to domestic pricing. The market weighs heavy on mesh producers, especially for building mesh used in commercial projects. The prices went so far down that the mesh makers had to announce price increases to stop the bleeding. Those increase announcements are meeting a lot of resistance but the producers may not have a choice but sticking to those price increases to avoid further losses.
Overall, summer doldrums are fully in effect and the long products market remains soft. At least scrap is supporting some price stability in August. Still there are high hopes when the buyers return from summer vacations to buy for Q4, the last good quarter of the year. |